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1827 results about "Influenza a" patented technology

Infectious disease epidemic situation predicative analysis method based on nonlinear and coefficient variation predictive model

The invention establishes a nonlinear and coefficient variation infectious disease predictive model aiming at epidemic diseases with viruses which have infectivity at a latent period and a period of onset, provides an epidemic situation control function directly related to the model, simulating and predicting effects of different control measures and different control degrees on the basis of prediction in consideration of the control measures, considers the epidemic situation control as a continuous change process, integrally simulating and predicting development and control of the epidemic situation and provides crucial quantitative information for decision-making departments to optimally decide and control the epidemic situation with the smallest cost. By adopting the invention, a relative error for simulating SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndromes) in Beijing areas in 2003 is 0.98% and predictive results for influenza A virus subtype H1N1 in US and Japan are well matched with the actual epidemic situation development, a quantified control factor for preventing the influenza A virus subtype H1N1 at an initial development stage and controlling the spread of the epidemic situation is obtained and epidemic situation development conditions of different control intensities and different susceptible people are predicted.
Owner:中国人民解放军防化指挥工程学院
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