Equipment residual service life prediction method under the condition of uncertain degradation measured data

Abstract

The invention belongs to the technical field of reliability engineering, and relates to an equipment residual service life prediction method under the condition of uncertain degradation measured data. The method includes the following steps: creating an equipment performance degradation model under the condition of the uncertain degradation measured data, estimating model parameters, estimating an equipment potential performance degradation state and predicating residual service life. The equipment residual service life prediction method under the condition of the uncertain degradation measured data is provided, degradation state uncertainty and measurement uncertainty are considered, characteristic quantity of individual service life and overall reliability service life of equipment are predicated and analyzed, and the method can serve as an effective analysis tool for predicating the residual service life of the equipment so as to provide powerful theoretical basis and technical support to state-based maintenance of the equipment, so that expenditure is reduced, unnecessary economic loss is avoided, and good engineering application value is realized.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of reliability engineering, and relates to a method for predicting the remaining life of high-reliability equipment under uncertain degradation measurement data. Background technique [0002] The existing remaining life prediction methods are mainly divided into two categories: model-based methods and data-based methods. Model-based methods include methods based on mechanistic models and methods based on statistical models. Among them, due to the complexity and randomness of the system, the method based on the mechanism model is difficult to obtain an accurate mechanism model of the system, which limits the application of this method: the method based on the statistical model comprehensively utilizes the system mechanism knowledge and state monitoring data, and can fully Prediction of remaining life using available information. The data-based method makes full use of the effective test data of the equipmen...

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] In view of the above-mentioned existing technical conditions, the purpose of the present invention is to provide a method of making full use of the measurement data obtained during the performance degradation process of the equipment to scientifically predict the individual life and overall life characteristics of high-reliability equipment, so as to solve the problem of uncertain measurement data. Equipment Remaining Lifetime Prediction Problem

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