Middle or short term forecasting method for landslide time

A technology for short-term forecasting and landslide time, applied in special data processing applications, instruments, electrical digital data processing, etc., can solve problems such as limitations of scientific understanding, achieve strong operability, low solution efficiency, and good simulation effects

Inactive Publication Date: 2014-02-26
JILIN UNIV
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AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0008] Macro-judgment and forecasting is an important method of disaster prevention and mitigation, but scientific understanding is limited

Method used

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  • Middle or short term forecasting method for landslide time
  • Middle or short term forecasting method for landslide time
  • Middle or short term forecasting method for landslide time

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Embodiment Construction

[0045] Below in conjunction with accompanying drawing and embodiment for further detailed description:

[0046] The invention relates to a medium and short-term forecast for the occurrence of landslides by using a computer program, and predicts the severe landslide time. The model of the present invention adopts the displacement dynamic parameters, because the displacement dynamic parameters are the most obvious to reflect the state of landslide movement, and the displacement dynamic parameters are easy to obtain and more intuitive, and it reflects the comprehensive effect result of various factors. Because the scatter diagram of most landslide displacement-time dynamic monitoring data columns is extremely similar to certain curves, the present invention proposes the object motion equation according to the variation curve of displacement and monitoring time similar equation Δ = P 4 ...

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Abstract

The invention relates to a middle or short term forecasting method for landslide time. Middle or short term forecast is conducted on landslide by utilizing a computer program, and the landslide and abrupt slide time is forecast. A landslide time middle or short term forecasting polynomial model is established, the model is simple in structure, high in operability, good in simulation effect and capable of achieving landslide real time tracking forecast. The middle or short term forecast is dynamic tracking forecast, in the forecast process, each time new observation data are obtained, a landslide parameter is processed and is substituted into a landslide middle or short term forecasting system for forecast, and each monitoring point can obtain a determined solution. Forecast is performed according to the latest change feature, the middle or short term forecasting method for the landslide time can achieve real-time tracking forecast so as to be accurate and reliable, has high adaptability to the middle or short term forecast, solves the problems of low efficiency, low reliability, complex calculation and the like of the landslide forecast, and can well serve prevention and reduction of natural disasters.

Description

Technical field: [0001] The invention relates to a landslide geological disaster prediction method, in particular to a short-term and medium-term prediction of a sliding type landslide. Background technique: [0002] Landslide time forecasting aims at the occurrence time of severe landslide, but not all landslides can occur severe landslide. Roughly speaking, there are three types of landslide movement: peristaltic type, intermittent peristaltic type and one-time sliding type. The former two usually do not cause severe slippage, or the sliding distance is relatively small at one time. Although they also cause different degrees of harm to human beings and their economic activities, they usually do not cause major disasters. The invention is aimed at the medium and short term forecast of a sliding type landslide. [0003] Landslide time prediction has a history of 30 years since Japanese scholar M.Saito published a paper at the Sixth Montreal International Conference on Soil...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F19/00
Inventor 佴磊李泽闯苏占东吕岩徐燕沈世伟张敏徐丽娜王彤王宏飞毛文飞黄耀龙刘迪柴新
Owner JILIN UNIV
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