A method for dynamic spot forecasting and dispatching of lng receiving station

Abstract

The invention relates to a dynamic spot goods forecasting and scheduling method for a liquefied natural gas (LNG) receiving station. The method comprises the following steps: setting an LNG dynamic spot goods forecasting and scheduling system consisting of a distributed control system (DCS), an LNG dynamic spot goods forecasting and scheduling simulation system platform and a GMS terminal in the LNG receiving station, wherein the simulation system platform comprises an initial parameter database, a simulation module with a built-in discrete simulation deduction program for integrating a Monte Carlo algorithm and a queuing theory of operational research, an index and report display module and an analytic database, and the simulation system platform is connected with the DCS and the GMS terminal via a network; executing simulation deduction in a long-term ADP mode by virtue of the simulation module, executing simulation deduction in a long-term ADP and dynamic spot goods request interaction mode, and generating an LNG dynamic spot goods scheduling plan according to the simulation deduction result by virtue of the GMS terminal. According to the method, the dynamic spot goods scheduling plan and the original long-term ADP are integrated to form reliable and complete ADP information, and the method can be widely applied to a dynamic spot goods forecasting and scheduling process for various LNG receiving stations.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to an LNG (liquefied natural gas) demand forecasting and dispatching method, in particular to a dynamic spot spot forecasting and dispatching method of an LNG receiving station. Background technique [0002] In the LNG industry chain, the basic function of the LNG receiving station is to unload the LNG carrier shipped from the long-term LNG supply point (i.e. the liquefaction plant) via the ocean, and store the LNG material in the LNG storage tank after unloading the ship. For gas demand, LNG is gasified and then exported to three types of gaseous users: industrial, civil and gas-fired power plants. At the same time, a small part of LNG is directly transported out in liquid form through LNG tankers. Due to reasons such as downstream gas peak shaving and seasonal fluctuations, in addition to implementing the ADP (annual delivery plan) of long-term supply points batch by batch, the receiving station will also have demand for LNG spo...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

For downstream users (including three types of gaseous users of industrial, civil and gas-fired power plants, as well as liquid users of tank trucks), the gas consumption fluctuates greatly, and there is a delay in delivery time in days as a long-term supply point, and the price of potential spot resources Under the influence of many variable elements such as large changes, tight transportation capacity, and high possibility of bad weather at the receiving port, the results of this analysis are rough and general, and it is often difficult to match the accurate spot time window, thus causing storage tanks to "empty". Tanks" (reserved storage tanks have a large spare tank capacity), or "forced tanks" (high stock, difficult to fill), and the queues of transport ships at the receiving station port, etc., which will delay the decision-making timing and cause serious economic losses, such as Fines, higher spot premiums, reduced downstream gas supply, and even failure to provide effective protection for normal gas supply

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