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Method for forecasting tornado potentiality of China region

A potential, regional technology, applied in the field of atmospheric scientific research, can solve the problem of accuracy not exceeding 5%, and achieve the effect of improving index parameters and thresholds, and improving the level of tornado potential forecasting

Inactive Publication Date: 2014-09-17
NANJING UNIV
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AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0008] Use foreign methods to predict tornado potential to predict tornado potential in China. Although it can also be judged, the accuracy rate does not exceed 5%.

Method used

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  • Method for forecasting tornado potentiality of China region
  • Method for forecasting tornado potentiality of China region
  • Method for forecasting tornado potentiality of China region

Examples

Experimental program
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Effect test

Embodiment Construction

[0030] Analyze the environmental parameters of 121 tornadoes and corresponding non-tornadoes that occurred in China from 2004 to 2009, and use the proximity sounding analysis method to find the corresponding relationship between environmental parameters and tornado occurrences, and distinguish between tornadoes and tornadoes. Non-tornado environment. Non-tornado: the average state where no tornado occurs. The annual average of the times when no tornado occurred in each parameter of the tornado occurred in each year from 2004 to 2009, 121 tornadoes correspond to 121*6 non-tornados. The proximity sounding analysis method uses the data closest to the time and place where the tornado occurred.

[0031] The specific scheme of the above-mentioned scheme is as follows:

[0032] Analyze the parameters of the 6 indicators. The single quantity indicator depends on the junction point of the two situations in the probability density distribution diagram of whether there is a tornado. Th...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a method for forecasting tornado potentiality of the China region. The method mainly comprises the two steps that firstly, whether the atmosphere has met the strong thunderstorm weather condition or not is judged; secondly, whether the strong thunderstorm has met the tornado condition is further judged. Whether convection effective potential energy data, 0-6 km wind shear data, 0-1 km wind shear data and lifting condensation height data and combinations in the atmosphere meet corresponding requirements is mainly judged. The method can improve tornado forecasting ability and effectively overcome the defect that nationwide research can not be performed because the tornado is difficult to capture and forecast.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for forecasting a tornado, in particular to a method for forecasting a tornado potential in China, and belongs to the field of atmospheric science research. Background technique [0002] A tornado is a vortex of strong winds accompanied by a funnel-shaped cloud column that rotates at high speed. Tornadoes are small in scale and short in life cycle, so they are not easy to be captured by conventional observation methods, let alone forecast and early warning in advance, causing heavy casualties and property losses to the places they pass. China is one of the countries seriously affected by tornadoes, especially in the eastern region where tornadoes frequently occur. Therefore, improving the accuracy of typhoon forecast is related to life and social safety. [0003] For the research on tornadoes, there are a large number of field experiments abroad, such as the VORTEX project in the United States. Their forecasting met...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G01W1/10
Inventor 王霁吟陈宝君王元宋金杰明杰郭传江
Owner NANJING UNIV
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