Ultra-short period wind power prediction method based on wind speed factor control model

A power forecasting and control model technology, applied in forecasting, instrumentation, data processing applications, etc., can solve problems such as reducing the accuracy of ultra-short-term power forecasting

Inactive Publication Date: 2015-02-25
STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA +1
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Problems solved by technology

The support vector machine method in this invention patent is suitable for solving small samples and nonlinear situations, while the neural network model is helpful for solving the situation of large sample training sets. This applicable condition determines that a single model can be used in some cases will reduce the accuracy of ultra-short-term power forecasting

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  • Ultra-short period wind power prediction method based on wind speed factor control model
  • Ultra-short period wind power prediction method based on wind speed factor control model
  • Ultra-short period wind power prediction method based on wind speed factor control model

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[0059] The present invention will be described in further detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0060] Such as figure 1 , the present invention provides a wind power ultra-short-term power prediction method based on a wind speed factor control model, the method comprising the following steps:

[0061] Step 1: Utilize the ARIMA model for ultra-short-term power forecasting;

[0062] Step 2: Utilize the BP neural network model for ultra-short-term power prediction;

[0063] Step 3: Complete ultra-short-term wind power forecasting through the wind speed factor control model.

[0064] Described step 1 specifically comprises the following steps:

[0065] Step 1-1: Use a total of 96 points within 24 hours of the previous day to make a difference to the measured power to obtain a stationary time series;

[0066] Step 1-2: Establish an ARIMA model to obtain ultra-short-term power forecast results for a total of 16 points in the next 4 hours.

[0067] Descri...

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Abstract

The invention provides an ultra-short period wind power prediction method based on a wind speed factor control model. The ultra-short period wind power prediction method includes performing an ultra-short period prediction according to an ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) model; performing the ultra-short period power prediction according to a BP (back propagation) neutral network model; completing the ultra-short period wind power prediction based on the wind speed factor control model. In this way, at the premise that the ARIMA model and the BP neutral network model are evaluated, the ARIMA model and the BP neutral network model can be switched according to the running environment, so that accuracy of the ultra-short wind power prediction is improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of wind power forecasting, and in particular relates to a wind power ultra-short-term power forecasting method based on a wind speed factor control model. Background technique [0002] The ultra-short-term forecasting technology of wind power is mainly aimed at forecasting the wind power with a time resolution of 15 minutes in the future 0-4 hours. Accurate ultra-short-term forecasting can provide guarantee for the AGC control of the power grid, which is conducive to real-time adjustment of power grid dispatching plan and arrangement of reserve capacity , Improve the security, stability and economical operation of the system. [0003] At present, the single model of ultra-short-term forecasting has been studied in depth, and its research results have been applied to the provincial dispatching departments and stations of major networks. However, due to the different application scenarios, the application of t...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06
Inventor 于炳霞谭志萍陈梅陈志宝程序周海丁杰崔方王知嘉曹潇丁宇宇周强丁煌朱想
Owner STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA
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