Decision-making method for electric system multi-objective optimization dispatching and based on evidence reasoning

Abstract

The invention discloses a decision-making method for electric system multi-objective optimization dispatching and based on evidence reasoning. The decision-making method includes the steps that priority analysis is performed on a plurality of dispatching objectives which electric system dispatching needs to consider, and important objective sets having great influences on dispatching operation are selected; multi-objective optimization is performed on the important objective sets to obtain a Pareto solution set, and the Pareto solution set serves as a candidate solution set to be selected by a dispatcher; multi-attribute analysis is performed on the candidate solution set, confidence coefficient estimation is performed, and the generated confidence coefficient estimation result is used as decision-making evidence; the decision-making evidence is fused according to an evidence inference method, and then confidence coefficient distribution of candidate solutions in different estimation grades can be obtained; the confidence coefficient distribution is mapped into utility values according to a utility function, average utility values of different candidate solutions are compared, and the candidate solution with the largest average utility value is used as a final dispatching scheme. According to the decision-making method, multi-objective operation evidence is effectively fused, the uncertainty of estimation by the dispatcher is considered, and therefore the decision-making method has remarkable engineering practical value and wide application prospect.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the research field of multi-objective optimal dispatching of power systems, in particular to a decision-making method for multi-objective optimal dispatching of electric power systems based on evidence reasoning, which takes into account the cognitive uncertainty of decision makers (dispatchers). Background technique [0002] Power system optimization dispatch usually needs to consider multiple objectives, such as power generation cost, system network loss, voltage stability index, voltage deviation and other indicators, and its essence is a multi-objective optimization problem. Since these multiple objectives usually conflict with each other, such as power generation cost and voltage stability index, it is impossible to have a unique optimal solution to make these objectives optimal at the same time. A set is obtained by optimizing multiple objectives of the power system, which is called the Pareto solution set, and each solut...

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Problems solved by technology

[0005] The main purpose of the present invention is to overcome the shortcomings and deficiencies of the prior art, and provide a decision-making method for multi-objective optimal dispatching of power systems based on evidence reasoning. This method can not only effectively integrate multi-objective operating evidence, but also consider The impact of uncertainty on decision-making, suitable for solving complex power system dispatching decision-making problems

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