Method for forecasting influence range of highway traffic incident on basis of microscopic simulation

A technology for traffic incidents and highways, applied in software simulation/interpretation/simulation, program control devices, etc., to achieve the effects of improving estimation accuracy and accuracy, expanding the scope of application, and ensuring data quality

Inactive Publication Date: 2015-05-27
CHINA ACAD OF TRANSPORTATION SCI
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  • Summary
  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0013] The object of the present invention is to provide a kind of prediction method based on the range of influence

Method used

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  • Method for forecasting influence range of highway traffic incident on basis of microscopic simulation
  • Method for forecasting influence range of highway traffic incident on basis of microscopic simulation
  • Method for forecasting influence range of highway traffic incident on basis of microscopic simulation

Examples

Experimental program
Comparison scheme
Effect test

Example Embodiment

[0058] Example one

[0059] In this embodiment, a method for predicting the impact range of highway traffic incidents based on micro-simulation is provided, which can be implemented according to the following steps:

[0060] Step 1: Obtain real-time toll data and historical toll data of the expressway network.

[0061] The main content of expressway toll data includes information such as the current time when the vehicle enters the expressway, the toll station code that enters the expressway, the time to leave the expressway, the toll station code that leaves the expressway, and the vehicle type. By counting the toll data of entering / leaving the same toll station during the same time period of entering the expressway, the data of expressway traffic demand by time period can be obtained. The time granularity of a traffic demand matrix is ​​5 minutes, the horizontal axis and the vertical axis of the matrix are the toll station numbers included in the road network, and the diagonal ele...

Example Embodiment

[0072] Example two

[0073] In this embodiment, a method for predicting the impact range of highway traffic incidents based on micro-simulation is provided, which can be implemented according to the following steps:

[0074] step 1:

[0075] Store the information of vehicles that have completed their trip and leave the expressway in the toll station exit information table. The fields in the table can include: entry time, entry code, exit time, exit code, license plate number, and vehicle type.

[0076] Step 2:

[0077] The traffic incident information is stored in the traffic incident information table. The fields in the table may include: incident time, incident road section, direction, station location, number of lanes passable before the incident and the number of lanes passable after the incident.

[0078] Step 3:

[0079] The deviation of the estimated OD relative to the historical OD is defined as a state vector, and the deviation is subject to an autoregressive process:

[0080] ...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a method for forecasting an influence range of a highway traffic incident on the basis of microscopic simulation and relates to the technical field of forecasting on the influence range of the traffic incident. The embodiment of the invention provides the following technical scheme that forecast future traffic demand data and traffic incident information are loaded a micro traffic simulation platform, and micro behaviors such as response, deceleration, queuing and the like of a vehicle in the traffic incident are simulated by a micro traffic simulation model so as to forecast the influence range of highway traffic time. Compared with a method for forecasting the influence range of the highway traffic incident on the basis of a traffic-wave theory, the forecasting method provided by the invention is obvious improved in precision and accuracy of estimating the influence range of the traffic incident; moreover, according to the embodiment of the invention, data is not limited to the arrangement condition of a vehicle detector, the application range is obviously enlarged, and the method is more suitable for forecasting the influence range of the highway networked traffic incident.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of forecasting the impact range of traffic events, in particular to a method for predicting the impact range of expressway traffic events based on microcosmic simulation. Background technique [0002] Expressway traffic accidents are an important factor affecting safe traffic. Once they occur, they will easily lead to secondary accidents, and will cause traffic congestion to spread in a wide range, quickly spreading to the upstream of the road section and even adjacent national and provincial roads, seriously affecting the normal operation of road network traffic. Therefore, obtaining traffic accident information in a timely manner after a traffic accident and quickly and accurately predicting the traffic state after the accident, especially the impact range of congestion caused by the accident, are the prerequisites for expressway managers to formulate scientific and reasonable disposal and control plans. ...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06F9/455
Inventor 张敖木翰张平曹剑东刘娜黄海涛
Owner CHINA ACAD OF TRANSPORTATION SCI
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