A prediction method of wind speed distribution in wind farm group based on correlation analysis

Abstract

The invention relates to a wind power plant group wind speed distribution prediction method based on correlation analysis and belongs to the field of electric power system operation and control. A wind power plant group correlation area division method based on a correction experience variation function is given with a space down-scaling thought, and a wind power plant group is divided into a plurality of correlation areas; on the basis, a space up-scaling thought is adopted, an experience accumulation distribution function is used, correlations between reference wind power plants and target wind power plants in the correlation areas are considered, and wind speeds of the target wind power plants are calculated by the aid of wind speeds of the reference wind power plants, and finally, wind speed curves of all the wind power plants in the wind power plant group are obtained. Therefore, the method has the advantages as follows: (1) the effect caused by the time delay factor is introduced, characteristics of the wind power plant group during actual operation are more conformed, and the prediction effect is better; (2) wind speed distribution of all the wind power plants in the wind power plant group can be effectively described with the space down-scaling and up-scaling thoughts.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for predicting wind speed distribution, which belongs to the field of power system operation and control, and in particular to a method for predicting wind speed distribution of wind farm groups based on correlation analysis. Background technique [0002] With the large-scale development of wind power, the integration of wind power has brought great challenges to the safe operation and dispatching control of the power grid. As more and more wind power is connected to the power grid in the form of farm groups, how to improve the wind speed distribution of wind farm groups and the ability and accuracy of wind power prediction is crucial to the safe production of electricity. [0003] For the wind speed prediction of a single wind farm, due to the influence of uncertain factors such as weather, temperature, and humidity, as the forecast period increases, its accuracy drops sharply. It is difficult to do a detailed analys...

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Problems solved by technology

At this stage, based on the correlation characteristics between wind farms described by the empirical variogram, the specific correlation area division is given, but the wind speed delay characteristics of wind farms in actual conditions are not considered

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