The invention discloses an ultra-short-term photovoltaic generation power prediction method based on a composite
data source autoregression model. The ultra-short-term photovoltaic generation power prediction method based on the composite
data source autoregression model comprises the steps that data are input to enable parameters of the autoregression model to be obtained; input data required by photovoltaic generation power prediction are input into the autoregression model which is determined according to the parameters of the autoregression model, so that a prediction result is obtained; model training basic data are input, order determination is conducted on the autoregression model AR(p) according to a residual
variogram method, and the parameters of the model AR(p) with the determined order are estimated according to a moment
estimation method. Key information is provided for
new energy power generation real-time scheduling, a
new energy power generation day-ahead plan, a
new energy power generation monthly plan, new energy power generation capability evaluation and wind curtailment power
estimation by predicting the photovoltaic generation power generated during photovoltaic generation. The ultra-short-term photovoltaic generation power prediction accuracy is effectively improved due to the fact a composite
data source is introduced, and thus the on-grid energy of new
energy resources is effectively increased on the premise that safe, stable and economical operation of a
power grid is guaranteed.