The invention discloses an ultra-short-term
wind power prediction method based on a composite
data source autoregression model. The ultra-short-term
wind power prediction method based on the composite
data source autoregression model comprises the steps that data are input to enable parameters of the autoregression model to be obtained; input data required by
wind power prediction are input into the autoregression model which is determined according to the parameters of the autoregression model, so that a prediction result is obtained, wherein the method for obtaining the parameters of the autoregression model by inputting the data specifically comprises the steps that model training basic data are input, order determination is conducted on the autoregression model AR(p) according to a residual
variogram method, and the parameters of the model AR(p) with the determined order are estimated according to a moment
estimation method. Key information is provided for
new energy power generation real-time scheduling, a
new energy power generation day-ahead plan, a
new energy power generation monthly plan, new energy power generation capability evaluation and wind curtailment power
estimation by predicting the wind power generated during
wind power generation. The ultra-short-term wind power prediction accuracy is effectively improved due to the fact a composite
data source is introduced, and thus the on-grid energy of new
energy resources is effectively increased on the premise that safe, stable and economical operation of a
power grid is guaranteed.