The invention provides a Bi-GRU and ARIMAX-based
hybrid prediction method for solving the problems that in network information demand prediction, a
single model is difficult to give consideration to both a linear period and nonlinear burst, social situation factors lack
time dynamics modeling, and a cross-scene
cold start period is long. Network scene characteristics are quantized through a scene heterogeneity index (SHI), a double-
branch parallel architecture is constructed, Bi-GRU is used for modeling nonlinear
time sequence dependence, ARIMAX is used for depicting linear trends and exogenous variables, a
noise adaptive
fusion mechanism is introduced to dynamically adjust model weights, and 7-14-day rapid deployment is realized in combination with a transfer learning strategy of parameter freezing. On a BAI
data set, the model MSE is 0.078, the MAPE is 6.26%, and the MSE and the MAPE are respectively reduced by 69.4% and 58.7% compared with those of ARIMAX and LSTM; and the error amplification is only 56% under the condition of 20%
noise. In cross-scene application, the
cold start period is shortened from 30-60 days to 7-14 days. After the method is applied to a university
library scene, the network operation and maintenance cost is reduced by 35%, the service
response time is shortened by 57%, and the
resource utilization rate is increased from 47% to 83%.