The invention relates to the technical field of power distribution
network recovery, and discloses a power distribution
network recovery success rate prediction method and
system, and the method comprises the steps: collecting the operation data of a power distribution network; constructing a
Bayesian network, defining nodes according to characteristics of the power distribution network, determining a connection relation of edges, and constructing a
conditional probability table; the method comprises the following steps: constructing a
recovery strategy through a Markov
decision process for dynamic optimization, training the
recovery strategy through a
reinforcement learning algorithm, introducing a Monte Carlo tree
search algorithm to search an optimal solution for the
recovery strategy, calculating the probability that the power distribution network is recovered to a target state, and generating success rate prediction results of different recovery strategies. According to the invention, the
interpretability and adaptability of the model are improved; dynamic optimization of a recovery strategy is realized, and different fault scenes and
system states can be adapted; the calculation efficiency is improved, factors such as
system topology, load characteristics and
new energy output are comprehensively considered, the prediction accuracy and practicability are improved, the
system recovery efficiency is improved, and the power failure loss is reduced.