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Short-term wind speed forecasting method based on grey generating perturbation model

A technology for disturbance model and wind speed prediction, applied in forecasting, instrumentation, data processing applications, etc.

Active Publication Date: 2015-09-23
NORTH CHINA ELECTRIC POWER UNIV (BAODING)
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  • Application Information

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Problems solved by technology

But so far, no prediction method has achieved ideal prediction results, and further research is needed by relevant technical personnel.

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  • Short-term wind speed forecasting method based on grey generating perturbation model
  • Short-term wind speed forecasting method based on grey generating perturbation model
  • Short-term wind speed forecasting method based on grey generating perturbation model

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Embodiment Construction

[0057] The invention proposes a new research direction of wind speed prediction in wind farms. Considering the influence of nonlinear factors in the atmospheric system on the variation of wind speed, and combining the ash generation theory to establish a wind speed disturbance model to improve the conventional wind speed prediction method. The characteristic expression of this invention comprises the following steps:

[0058] Step 1: Fix the initial conditions and parameters when numerically solving the Lorenz equation , The value of the variable Rayleigh number Different forms of Lorenz attractors are available:

[0059] The Lorenz system is a classic model for studying nonlinear systems and chaotic phenomena. It is a three-variable model extracted by American meteorologist E. N. Lorenz from the seven-variable fluid convection model simplified by B. Saltzman. The Lorenz equation can be expressed as:

[0060] , (1)

[0061] In the formula , wit...

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Abstract

A short-term wind speed forecasting method based on a grey generating perturbation model comprises a step a of carrying out the numerical solution on an Lorenz equation; a step b of defining an Lorenz disturbance quantity form; a step c of utilizing a BP network to carry out the short-term wind speed preliminary forecasting; a step d of selecting the Lorenz disturbance quantity of a rayleigh number to correct a forecasting result; a step e of fitting the wind speed and a disturbance variable with the help of a grey generating theory and a polynomial accumulation generation model, and establishing a disturbance model; a step f of utilizing the Lorenz disturbance quantity of other rayleigh numbers to establish the disturbance model; a step g of carrying out the wind speed forecasting; a step h of introducing an error index to evaluate the validity and wind speed forecasting level of the disturbance model. According to the present invention, a grey generating technology is utilized to weaken the randomness of the wind speed and the disturbance variable, and then a wind speed disturbance model is established. By carrying out the short-term wind speed forecasting, the wind power forecasting accuracy can be improved substantially, and the safe and stable operation of an electric power system can be guaranteed.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a short-term wind speed prediction method based on a Lorenz disturbance system and a gray generation model, belonging to the technical field of power generation. Background technique [0002] The deterioration of the ecological environment and the shortage of global mineral resources are two major problems facing the world today. The development and utilization of renewable clean energy is an effective way to solve the above problems. Renewable energy refers to energy from nature, generally including solar energy, biomass energy, wind energy, water energy, geothermal energy, tidal energy, hydrogen energy and nuclear energy, etc. Wind energy is a clean and renewable energy with abundant resources and wide distribution. At present, wind power generation is one of the ways to utilize wind resources on a large scale. According to statistics from the China Wind Energy Association, by the end of 2013, China's new wind power instal...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
Inventor 张亚刚杨京云王康成王增平
Owner NORTH CHINA ELECTRIC POWER UNIV (BAODING)