Electric power system grey load prediction method based on exponential smoothing

An exponential smoothing method and exponential smoothing technology, which can be used in forecasting, data processing applications, instruments, etc., and can solve problems such as reducing the accuracy of gray forecasting models.

Inactive Publication Date: 2016-03-30
FUZHOU UNIVERSITY
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Problems solved by technology

[0005] Because the known electricity demand is affected by political, economic, climate and other related factors

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  • Electric power system grey load prediction method based on exponential smoothing
  • Electric power system grey load prediction method based on exponential smoothing
  • Electric power system grey load prediction method based on exponential smoothing

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[0044] The technical solution of the present invention will be described in detail below in conjunction with the drawings.

[0045] Such as figure 1 As shown, the gray load forecasting method of power system based on exponential smoothing of the present invention is implemented as follows:

[0046] Step S1: Obtain the original data column x (00) =[x (00) (1),x (00) (2),x (00) (3)...x (00) (n)];

[0047] Step S2: Select the number of exponential smoothing according to the characteristics of the time series trend. For the selection of the number of exponential smoothing, follow the following rules: when the time series is in a smooth trend, the one-time exponential smoothing method is used; when the time series is in a linear trend, the two Sub-exponential smoothing method; when the time series shows a nonlinear trend, it is estimated by the three-time exponential smoothing method; the three exponential smoothing models are:

[0048] S t (1) =αX t +(1-α)S t-1 (1)

[0049] S t (2) =αS t ...

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Abstract

The invention relates to the electric power system load prediction field and especially relates to a grey load prediction method based on exponential smoothing. Aiming at conditions of randomness and uncertainty possessed by an original date sequence of a traditional grey model, the invention provides an improved method combining the exponential smoothing. Through using the exponential smoothing, weighting is performed on the original date sequence to generate a new sequence. Historical data which has large volatility and easily generates a large error is smoothed so that the sequence becomes a sequence which has a high regularity and shows an exponential function. Simultaneously, a background value of a grey model is optimized and a prediction error of the model is further reduced. Through combining the two prediction models, prediction precision is greatly increased; and the method is suitable for correlation departments of an electric power system and the like and is used to solve a load prediction problem in an electric power program.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of power system load forecasting, in particular to a gray load forecasting method for power systems based on exponential smoothing. Background technique [0002] With the vigorous development of the electric power industry and the continuous deepening of the reform of my country's electric power system, the research on the theory and method of electric load forecasting is becoming more and more important. Load forecasting is the process of analyzing the law of load changes based on historical load data and related influencing factors, comprehensively considering the reasons affecting load changes, using certain load forecasting models and research methods, and estimating the load value in a certain period of time in the future. . Its main task is to predict the spatial and temporal distribution of future electrical loads. The main purpose of power load forecasting is to predict and provide the development and level ...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06
Inventor 金涛张怡真魏海斌
Owner FUZHOU UNIVERSITY
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