Power load forecasting method based on improved exponential smoothing and gray model

Abstract

The invention belongs to the technical field of short term power load forecasting, and discloses a power load forecasting method based on improved exponential smoothing and a gray model. The method includes the following steps: inputting original power load real-time data, and conducting a single exponential smoothing on the original power load real-time data, weakening the randomness of the original power load real-time data, such that the original power load real-time data approaches exponential development trend; predicting a smoothed sequence by using a gray forecasting model which optimizes background value; conducting inverse exponential smoothing on the forecasting result and returning the result to original power load data and a forecasting value at a next forecasting moment; determining whether the result reaches the requirements of knitting fitting errors, and outputting a forecasting result. According to the invention, the method expands the application range of the gray forecasting model, shortens search intervals, has higher forecasting reliability as high as 97%, can the meet requirements for maintaining the average error of short term power load forecasting at approximately 3% so as to address the problem of short term power load forecasting in future development of intelligent power grids.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of short-term electric load forecasting, in particular to an electric load forecasting method based on an improved exponential smoothing gray model. Background technique [0002] Electricity is the driving force of economic development and an indispensable condition for maintaining the normal operation of modern society. It occupies an extremely important position in various industries of the national economy and people's lives. With the rapid economic growth and the significant increase in the income level of residents, the user's demand for electricity has grown rapidly, making the contradiction between power supply and demand more prominent. In addition, the particularity of electric power is that it cannot be stored in large quantities, which requires that the production, transmission, distribution and consumption of electric energy must be kept in sync. Social electricity consumption requirements. In ...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0004] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a power load forecasting method based on an improved exponential smoothing gray model, aiming to solve the problems of difficult to predict data with random fluctuations, large forecasting errors, and low reliability in the current power load forecasting method

Images