Method for predicting wind speed of wind power plant at short term

A technology for wind speed forecasting and forecasting methods, which is applied in forecasting, instrumentation, data processing applications, etc.

Inactive Publication Date: 2014-02-05
STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA +1
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  • Summary
  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

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Problems solved by technology

These methods have good applications in some specific fields, but they do not consider the influence of historical data in different time periods on the prediction results.
[0004] The existing wind speed prediction methods for wind farms can have an error of 25%-40%. The accuracy of wind speed prediction is af

Method used

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  • Method for predicting wind speed of wind power plant at short term
  • Method for predicting wind speed of wind power plant at short term
  • Method for predicting wind speed of wind power plant at short term

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Experimental program
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Effect test

Embodiment 1

[0062] figure 1 It is a flowchart of a short-term wind speed prediction method proposed by the present invention, figure 2 is the historical wind speed time series of a wind farm in a certain period of time in the specific embodiment of the present invention, image 3 is the one-step wind speed prediction rendering, Figure 4 It is a wind speed two-step prediction effect diagram, as shown in the figure: a kind of wind farm short-term wind speed prediction method provided by the present invention includes the following steps:

[0063] S1: Collect N pieces of wind speed data and arrange to form a wind speed historical data sequence;

[0064] Such as figure 2 As shown, n represents the total number of collections, and the number of predictions k can be selected as k=1,...,n-N, N only represents the number of wind speed data sequences selected in a single prediction, and the number N+1 is used to predict The number of data in the middle smooth prediction process (t=1,2,...N) c...

Embodiment 2

[0105] This embodiment takes a specific wind farm as an example to illustrate the specific process of the method:

[0106] The N pieces of wind speed data in this embodiment are obtained by collecting wind speed data of the wind farm at intervals. The N pieces of wind speed data in this embodiment are a total of 24 pieces of wind speed data collected every hour. The measured wind speed in the t-th period in this embodiment is collected at intervals of 1 / 6-3 hours. The measured wind speed in this embodiment is acquired by an wind speed acquisition instrument. The search step size of the carpet traversal search algorithm in this embodiment is 0.001-0.1.

[0107] as attached figure 1 As shown, a kind of short-term wind speed prediction method of the present invention mainly comprises the following steps:

[0108] Select an appropriate time interval, use the wind speed acquisition instrument to collect wind speed data at regular intervals, and sort out the original data as a h...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a method for predicting the wind speed of a wind power plant at a short term. The method includes the following steps that wind speed data in a period of time are acquired and reduced into a time sequence for analytical prediction; a carpet traversal search method is adopted, and based on a dynamic cubic exponential smoothing prediction method, dynamic smoothing coefficients are determined according to the criterion of the minimum error sum of squares; the determined dynamic smoothing coefficients and the dynamic cubic exponential smoothing method are utilized to conduct one-step or multi-step prediction; the rest is conducted in the same way, new historical data are acquired, the smoothing coefficients are updated, and the later wind speed prediction continues to be conducted. According to the method for predicting the wind speed of the wind power plant at the short term, the characteristics of local historical wind speed are comprehensively considered, and the prediction effect is good.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of wind power generation, in particular to a short-term wind speed prediction method for a wind farm based on an adaptive dynamic cubic exponential smoothing prediction model. Background technique [0002] Judging from the development of distributed power in recent years, wind power has undoubtedly become the most promising new energy due to the maturity of its technology and the reduction of power generation costs. The output of wind turbines has strong randomness, which is determined by the randomness of wind speed. Therefore, the forecasting research on wind speed has become an indispensable part of studying the output of wind power generation system. [0003] At present, some experts and scholars at home and abroad have proposed many wind speed prediction methods, such as artificial neural network method, Kalman filter method, wavelet transform method, autoregressive moving average (ARMA) modeling metho...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
Inventor 王国权刘华勇周平王森宫林
Owner STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA
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