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Distribution network load prediction method and distribution network load prediction system based on transformer operation data

A technology of load forecasting and operation data, applied in the field of power system, can solve the problem of low load forecasting accuracy, avoid load classification and analysis of influencing factors, improve load forecasting speed, and refine space division.

Active Publication Date: 2016-08-03
FOSHAN POWER SUPPLY BUREAU GUANGDONG POWER GRID
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Problems solved by technology

[0004] Based on this, it is necessary to provide a distribution network load forecasting method and system based on transformer operating data to solve the problem of low load forecasting accuracy in the prior art

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  • Distribution network load prediction method and distribution network load prediction system based on transformer operation data
  • Distribution network load prediction method and distribution network load prediction system based on transformer operation data
  • Distribution network load prediction method and distribution network load prediction system based on transformer operation data

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Embodiment Construction

[0021] The technical solutions of the present invention will be described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and preferred embodiments.

[0022] In one example, see figure 1 As shown, a distribution network load forecasting method based on transformer operating data, the method includes the following steps:

[0023] S100 acquires the operation data of each transformer in the area to be predicted in the distribution network, the operation data includes the operation history years of the transformers and the annual maximum load value corresponding to each of the operation history years;

[0024] S200 performing data fitting processing on the operation history year and the annual maximum load value of each of the transformers to obtain an optimal fitting curve corresponding to each of the transformers;

[0025] S300 calculate and obtain the load prediction value of each of the transformers according to the optimal fitting curve;

[0026] S400 calculat...

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Abstract

The invention relates to a distribution network load prediction method and a distribution network load prediction system based on transformer operation data. According to the method and the system, transformers under feeders in a distribution network are used as calculation units to get the corresponding optimal fitting curve of each transformer; and under the corresponding optimal fitting curve of each transformer, the sum of load predicted values of all the transformers on the same feeder is calculated to get the feeder load predicted value of the feeder, and the regional load predicted value of a to-be-predicted region is obtained. As the load change trend of each transformer is analyzed separately, space division of the to-be-predicted region is more refined, and the accuracy of load prediction is increased. As the load natures of the power supply regions of the transformers are often similar and the influencing factors are the same, the method and the system can effectively avoid complex load classification and influencing factor analysis so as to simplify the calculation process and improve the speed of load prediction.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of electric power systems, in particular to a distribution network load prediction method and system based on transformer operation data. Background technique [0002] Load forecasting refers to determining the load data at a certain moment or time period in the future based on many factors such as the operating characteristics of the power system, capacity increase decisions, natural conditions and social influences, and under the condition of meeting certain accuracy requirements. "Load" refers to the electricity demand (power). With the development of the electricity market, the importance of power system load forecasting has become increasingly apparent, and the requirements for load forecasting accuracy are getting higher and higher. [0003] The key to load forecasting is to collect a large amount of historical data, establish a scientific and effective forecasting model, use effective algorithms, con...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): H02J3/00
CPCH02J3/00H02J3/003
Inventor 罗毅初黄伟陈雪叶琳浩李达凯
Owner FOSHAN POWER SUPPLY BUREAU GUANGDONG POWER GRID
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