Risk analysis method for day-ahead dispatching plan based on wind power longitudinal moment probability model

Abstract

The invention discloses a day-ahead scheduling plan risk analysis method based on a wind-power longitudinal time probability model. A wind-power power longitudinal time probability model is constructed; a wind-power output probability model is established; a branch out-of-limit severity function is defined, degrees of being close to a thermal stabilization limit by a branch trend in various wind-power output states are analyzed, and a severity index is constructed; on the basis of the wind-power output probability model and the severity index, branch out-of-limit risks on all wind-power output scenes at a certain time are evaluated independently by using the time as a study object; and on the basis of a longitudinal time Markov chain model of wind-power output state transferring, a system operation risk change caused by a wind-power output fluctuation process is described vividly by using risk association between adjacent times as a study object. According to the risk analysis method provided by the invention, the operation security risk and the risk period change during the whole scheduling period can be described completely, so that the full decision-making basis is provided for the scheduling decision maker.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of wind power integration into power grids, in particular to a risk analysis method for day-ahead dispatching plans based on a wind power longitudinal moment probability model. Background technique [0002] With the integration of large-scale wind power into the power grid, the uncertainty of wind power will inevitably cause changes in the operating status of the power system, such as changes in branch power and node voltage, which will have a certain impact on the safety and adequacy of the system, and even large-scale blackouts risks of. From the perspective of risk, quantify the uncertainty of the operation of the power system including wind farms, and assist dispatch decision makers to improve the economic level of the system on the basis of meeting the reliability level of power supply, try to accommodate renewable energy, and maximize the potential of the power grid. [0003] The day-ahead scheduling plan deter...

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] The existing day-ahead dispatching models have the following two problems when taking into account the operational risks caused by wind power fluctuations: On the one hand, unlike conventional energy generation methods, wind power has its uncertainty mainly Due to random changes in output within the rated value, especially in the case of crossing multiple output states in a short period of time, it may cause safety problems such as insufficient spinning reserve of the system and cross-limit of branch power flow, which should be paid more attention to

[0007] However, related technologies including the risk analysis planned for the wind farm power system have not yet appeared, and cannot provide corresponding decision-making basis for the safe and stable operation of the power grid

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