Method for predicting atmospheric PM2.5 concentration based on VARX model

A concentration prediction and model technology, applied in special data processing applications, instruments, electrical digital data processing, etc., to achieve the effect of high prediction accuracy and strong generalization ability

Active Publication Date: 2016-10-26
SHANGHAI UNIV
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Problems solved by technology

[0005] The present invention provides a PM based on VARX model 2.5 Concentration Prediction Method to Address Atmospheric PM 2.5 Concentration Prediction and Its Accuracy

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  • Method for predicting atmospheric PM2.5 concentration based on VARX model
  • Method for predicting atmospheric PM2.5 concentration based on VARX model
  • Method for predicting atmospheric PM2.5 concentration based on VARX model

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Embodiment Construction

[0032] Such as figure 1 As shown, the present invention firstly targets the PM of the target city 2.5 The concentration data and meteorological data of related pollutants are preprocessed. PM 2.5 Do principal component analysis to obtain the principal component sequence matrix for other data. Extract PM 2.5 The concentration data is used as the dependent variable y (predicted value) of the model, and the combination of other principal components Comp is used as the independent variable x of the model 1 , x 2 ,..,x n (predictive features). Construct a time series dataset S using the x matrix and y vector, and divide the dataset S into a training set S train and validation set S validate . Take the training set S train A VARX vector autoregressive model is generated by a computer algorithm to validate the set S validate data to evaluate the model results. This method can also set the minimum prediction interval T of the model min , to PM 2.5 Concentration for short...

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Abstract

The invention provides a method for predicting atmospheric PM2.5 concentration based on a VARX model. The method comprises the following steps of: (1), collecting pollutant concentration data and meteorological data of a target city; (2), reading the pollutant data and the meteorological data of the target city from a database; (3), performing principal component analysis of the data, except PM2.5; (4), performing a root test of a data set; (5), constructing a VARX equation model; (6), determining a lagged order of the model by using an AIC Akaike information criterion and a SC Schwarz criterion; and (7), predicting the PM2.5 concentration by correcting and using the VARX model. The method disclosed by the invention has the characteristics of being relatively high in generalization ability, relatively high in prediction precision and the like.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to a kind of atmospheric PM based on VARX model 2.5 Concentration prediction methods, especially atmospheric PM based on VARX model combined with target city meteorological data and pollution data 2.5 A method for time series forecasting of mass concentrations. Depending on the model settings, short-term and long-term forecasts can be made. Background technique [0002] While China's economy is maintaining high-speed development, the extensive economic development mode has brought about huge energy consumption and a substantial increase in pollutant emissions. This high-concentration PM 2.5 It will affect the public's physical and mental health and environmental safety, reduce atmospheric visibility, affect regional climate, and lead to increasingly serious air pollution in China's economically developed regions such as the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the Yangtze River Delta region and the Pearl River Delta region. In...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F19/00
CPCG06F2219/10G16Z99/00
Inventor 许振影王杨君赵博阳鲍胜威陈杨欢
Owner SHANGHAI UNIV
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