The present application belongs to the field of
blast furnace system health management and prediction, and specifically discloses a
blast furnace degradation model calibration and residual life prediction method under a
noise environment. The method is based on a fractional
Brownian motion with historical dependence, constructs an initial degradation model of the
blast furnace system, estimates the
model parameters by the maximum likelihood
estimation method, and determines the optimal model structure of the blast furnace
system temperature change by the
Akaike information criterion. In addition, the present application also designs a model calibration trigger mechanism; when the mechanism is not triggered, the Bayesian fusion
particle filter is used to estimate the potential degradation state of the system and update the
model parameters; when the mechanism is triggered, a prediction error model is constructed and the degradation model structure is calibrated to adapt to complex working conditions. Finally, the probability
distribution function of the residual life of the blast furnace system is derived, and the residual life prediction of the blast furnace system is carried out according to the calibrated degradation model.