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Electricity usage load predicting method based on parameter correction

A technology of electricity load and forecasting method, which is applied in the field of electric power system, can solve problems such as difficult control of accuracy, complex logic structure, and many model parameters, and achieve the effect of improving accuracy and effectively grasping market information

Active Publication Date: 2017-01-25
BEIJING HUADIAN TIANREN ELECTRIC POWER CONTROL TECH
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Problems solved by technology

[0003] For the electricity load forecasting in the power grid, most of the existing convenient methods mainly use the one-time sliding average method to predict the electricity load through the total amount of electricity consumption. The prediction accuracy is low because it only considers the total amount of electricity consumption in the grid. Accuracy is difficult to control
However, using neural network analysis, system dynamics analysis and other analysis methods to predict electricity load, although all factors that affect load changes are fully considered, the established model has many parameters, and the logical structure between variables is relatively complicated. It is difficult and easy to implement it as a marketing information system on the power generation side

Method used

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  • Electricity usage load predicting method based on parameter correction
  • Electricity usage load predicting method based on parameter correction

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Embodiment Construction

[0031] The technical solutions of the present invention will be further introduced in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments.

[0032] as attached figure 1 Shown is the schematic flow chart of the provincial electric load forecasting method for parameter correction of the present invention, and the specific steps are as follows:

[0033] Step 1: Obtain the power consumption load data of power users from the data released by relevant institutions, and collect and organize the single-quarter power consumption and historical data of different industries.

[0034] Step 2: Construct the provincial electricity load forecasting model

[0035] This step contains the following substeps:

[0036] 1) Calculate the year-on-year growth rate of power loada based on the collected historical electricity consumption information i

[0037] a i , j - 1 ...

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Abstract

The invention discloses an electricity usage load predicting method based on parameter correction, comprising the steps of 1) acquiring electricity usage load data of industry-based electricity users to mainly collect and sort industry-based monthly electricity usage history data; 2) calculating year-on-year increase rate of power load to construct an electricity usage load predicting model; 3) correcting key parameters of the predicting model; 4) calculating a predicted value of future power market electricity usage load. The precision of prediction methods for electricity usage load in the power market can be improved, and power generation side salesmen can gain better understanding of supply and demand condition of the power market.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of power systems, and in particular relates to the electricity load forecasting optimization technology. In view of the increasingly close power transactions in the current power market, combined with the characteristics of the power load forecasting method, the accuracy of the power load forecasting method in the power market is improved by modifying the forecast parameters, and the marketers on the power generation side have a better understanding of the supply and demand of the power market. The overall planning of the power plant's own production guides the marketing department of the company to formulate bidding strategies in the game of the power market, and realizes the optimal allocation of resources of the power generation company. Background technique [0002] Power load forecasting is the analysis of power market supply and demand by the marketing staff of power generation companies to grasp the l...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06Y04S10/50
Inventor 路昂史琳佩
Owner BEIJING HUADIAN TIANREN ELECTRIC POWER CONTROL TECH
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