Back-fitting algorithm-based flood forecast real-time correction method

A technology of flood forecasting and real-time correction, applied in computing, climate sustainability, instruments, etc., can solve the problems that the flow rate and the measured flow rate are not optimal, and improvements are rare

Active Publication Date: 2017-02-08
WUHAN UNIV
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Problems solved by technology

[0011] In this process, there are also the following problems: (1) The error autoregressive method often ignores the applicable conditions of the AR model when using the AR model to fit the residual sequence, that is, the residual sequence is required to be a stationary sequence; (2) combined with the error autoregressive In the real-time flood forecasting method of the regression correction method, most of the observed historical hydrological data are used, and the parameters of the hydrological model are determined first. The matching degree o

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  • Back-fitting algorithm-based flood forecast real-time correction method
  • Back-fitting algorithm-based flood forecast real-time correction method
  • Back-fitting algorithm-based flood forecast real-time correction method

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Embodiment 1

[0059] Step 1 Initialization phase

[0060] Step 1.1 Construct the hydrological model of the watershed, use the optimization algorithm to rate the parameters of the hydrological model, and establish the objective function optimized by the optimization algorithm

[0061] min F = 1 N [ Σ i = 1 N ( Q o b s ( i ) - Q s i m , 1 ( i ) ) 2 ] - - - ( 1 )

[0062] In the formula: Q obs (i) is the measured flow value at the i-th m...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a back-fitting algorithm-based flood forecast real-time correction method. According to the method, a back-fitting algorithm in a data mining technology is introduced based on a conventional error autoregression correction method to correct parameters of a hydrologic model, and stationary processing of a residual error sequence is considered, so that a new method for improving conventional flood forecast real-time correction is proposed. The method can be widely applied to real-time flood forecast, can effectively improve the flood forecast precision, and provides an important basis for a flood prevention dispatching decision.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of flood forecasting, in particular to a real-time correction method of error autoregression. Background technique [0002] Flood is one of the most serious natural disasters that threaten people's life and property in our country. Statistics show that the average annual loss caused by floods in my country ranks first in natural disasters. As a non-engineering measure in flood control and disaster reduction, flood forecast is an important basis for flood control decision-making. However, the hydrological model widely used in flood forecasting is derived from the inversion of measured rainfall and runoff data, which reflects the average condition of the underlying surface in the watershed, and there are still problems such as data error and model structure uncertainty. Causes unavoidable errors in flood forecasting. Therefore, it is a necessary measure to adopt real-time correction technology for proper cor...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06F19/00
CPCG16Z99/00Y02A10/40Y02A90/10
Inventor 张晓菁刘攀
Owner WUHAN UNIV
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