Short-term climate prediction method and system for summer average temperature in Jiangnan region of China

Abstract

The present invention relates to a South China area summer average temperature short term climate prediction method and system which comprises the steps of calculating the summer average temperature of a South China area, calculating the meteorological parameter data of an early winter tropical India ocean area corresponding to the above summer average temperature data, especially using a TWNIO index which expresses the tropical northwest India Ocean region thermal condition abnormity as the above meteorological parameter, using the above summer average temperature data and meteorological parameter data to construct a prediction model, and predicting the summer average temperature of South China through the prediction model. According to the method, the temperature can be accurately and effectively predicted through early meteorological parameter, especially South China area summer high temperature, the method has strong prediction ability, and effective warning information can be provided for a state climate disaster.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of weather forecasting. Background technique [0002] Generally speaking, for the qualitative prediction of summer climate anomalies (such as drought and flood, cold and warm, etc.) in eastern China, people tend to pay attention to the El Niño (El Niño) in the Pacific region in the early winter. ) or La Niña (La )-type sea temperature anomaly, and take it as an important early factor for short-term climate prediction. However, the accuracy of forecasting using the above factors is currently relatively low, especially the ability to predict strong high temperatures. Since strong high temperatures often cause greater climate disasters, there is an urgent need for a method that can accurately predict summer climate in eastern China, especially It is a prediction method with relatively strong high temperature prediction ability, so as to provide effective help for the prevention of national climate disasters...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, the accuracy of forecasting using the above factors is currently relatively low, especially the ability to predict strong high temperatures. Since strong high temperatures often cause greater climate disasters, there is an urgent need for a method that can accurately predict summer climate in eastern China, especially It is a prediction method with relatively strong high temperature prediction ability, so as to provide effective help for the prevention of national climate disasters

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