Wind power prediction method based on grey-combined weight

Abstract

The invention discloses a wind power prediction method based on grey-combined weight. Fruit-fly least squares support vector machine model prediction and grey residual least-squares-support-vector machine model prediction are carried out on original wind power data respectively to obtain training data; the training data and practical data are compared and a grey relational degree analysis is carried out to obtain grey relational degree weight matrix; a target is predicted by using a fruit-fly least squares support vector machine and a grey least squares support vector machine, two obtained results are multiplied by the obtained grey relational degree weight matrix, and results are added, thereby obtaining a final prediction result. According to the weight combination algorithm of a grey relational degree model, a big error caused by an unknowable factor of a single model can be reduced based on the combined prediction; and the weight of the model output with high prediction precision in the result is improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for predicting ultra-short-term power of wind power, in particular to a method for predicting wind power with gray joint weights. Background technique [0002] Wind Power Prediction / Wind Farm Power Prediction WPP (Wind Power Prediction) (also known as Wind Energy Prediction in some domestic professional magazines) wind power prediction refers to the prediction of the power generation of wind turbines in wind farms. [0003] The wind farm is to use the wind turbines installed at a reasonable distance within a certain predicted coordinate range after scientific calculation, and use the electricity generated by the wind energy within the controllable range to realize the operation and power supply. [0004] Since the wind is produced by the air flow caused by the difference in atmospheric pressure, the wind direction and the size of the wind are changing all the time. Therefore, wind power generation has the characterist...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

The power fluctuations of wind farms caused by these characteristics will have an impact on the overall operation of the regional power grid, which in turn will affect the voltage stability of the entire regional power grid.

Therefore, when wind farms, especially large-capacity wind farms, are connected to the grid, it will bring certain hidden dangers to the safe and stable operation of the entire power system.

At the same time, these fluctuating, intermittent and random characteristics will also seriously affect the power generation efficiency and service life of the fan

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