Method for predicting ship fuel consumption according to sea conditions and manipulating conditions

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for predicting ship fuel consumption according to sea conditions and manipulating conditions. The method for predicting the ship oil consumption comprises the steps of firstly acquiring a sample data set through data screening, data integration and normalized processing, then building a multivariate linear regression prediction model, defining a cost function by adopting a least shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO algorithm) based on the sample data set, performing variable shrinkage and parameter selection by combining cross validation and a least angle regression (LARS) algorithm, finally solving LASSO estimation by adopting an Osborne dual algorithm, and calculating to acquire the ship fuel consumption. The method provided by the invention for predicting the ship fuel consumption according to sea conditions and manipulating conditions can establish a function relation between the ship fuel consumption amount and each influence factor, solves a problem of multicollinearity in fuel consumption calculation, improves the ship fuel consumption calculation accuracy and has importance significance for energy conservation and emission reduction of traffic on the sea.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of ship shipping, and in particular relates to a method for predicting fuel consumption of a ship according to sea conditions and maneuvering conditions. Background technique [0002] Fuel consumption during ship navigation is affected by various uncertain factors such as meteorological and sea conditions, ship navigation status, and operating conditions, and fuel consumption prediction has important guiding significance for ship speed, course, and other operations. Accurate fuel consumption calculation can better guide the crew to steer the ship and ensure sailing with a low fuel consumption, low emission and high-efficiency maneuvering plan within the time required by the ship schedule. However, the uncertainty of influencing factors and the high correlation between some factors make it impossible to accurately determine the functional relationship between fuel consumption and various influencing factors, and it is ...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0007] The invention provides a method for predicting fuel consumption of a ship according to sea conditions and maneuvering conditions, which can solve the problem of fuel consumption calculation during ship navigation, and comprehensively consider factors such as weather, sea conditions, navigation status, and maneuverability that affect ship navigation, by constructing a statistical model and Combining machine learning algorithms to learn parameters and model training for the model, and finally obtain a fuel consumption prediction model for fast and accurate prediction of ship fuel consumption under the influence of various factors

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