Pre-rainfall optimal parameter based flood forecasting method

A flood forecasting and parameter technology, applied in data processing applications, instruments, climate change adaptation, etc., can solve the problem of low forecast accuracy, achieve good results, improve accuracy and practicability

Inactive Publication Date: 2017-06-13
CHINA INST OF WATER RESOURCES & HYDROPOWER RES
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Problems solved by technology

It can avoid the problem of low forecasting accuracy caused by unreasonable selection of model parameters in flood forecasting

Method used

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  • Pre-rainfall optimal parameter based flood forecasting method
  • Pre-rainfall optimal parameter based flood forecasting method
  • Pre-rainfall optimal parameter based flood forecasting method

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Embodiment Construction

[0022] In order to make the purpose, advantages and technical solutions of the present invention clearer, the specific implementation of the present invention will be described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and examples.

[0023] The present invention proposes a flood forecasting method based on the optimal parameters of previous rainfall, which can provide reasonable hydrological model parameters for the flood forecasting model, making flood forecasting more accurate; the method is as follows figure 1 shown, including the following steps:

[0024] (1) According to the river flow data recorded in the forecast area, all flood events in the area are counted, and the flood occurrence time and flood flow value are recorded; then, all historical flood events in the forecast area are counted according to the daily rainfall data in the area Pre-precipitation values ​​P of the first 1, 3 and 7 days of each hydrological station in the forecast area befor...

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Abstract

The present invention relates to a pre-rainfall optimal parameter based flood forecasting method, and belongs to the technical field of flood forecasting. The method comprises the following steps: collecting statistics of the amount of the pre-rainfall in a forecast area before the occurrence of all historical flood in the forecast area; dividing the historical flood into a flood season group and a non-flood season group, and constructing a flood forecasting model for the forecast area; carrying out single parameter calibration on each historical flood so as to obtain a set of parameters for each flood; carrying out continuous parameter calibration respectively on the flood in the flood season group and the non-flood season group so as to obtain two sets of parameters, and dividing each of the two sets of parameters into two types of parameters of high sensitivity and low sensitivity; monitoring and recording daily rainfall data in real time, and collecting statistics of the amount of the pre-rainfall of the rainfall; and calculating a close degree between the amount of the pre-rainfall of the rainfall and the amount of the pre-rainfall of the historical flood, and taking the minimum value of the close degree as the flood forecasting model established by using the objective factor index so as to carry out flood forecasting. According to the method disclosed by the present invention, the accuracy and practicability of the hydrological model applied in flood forecasting are improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of flood forecasting, and more specifically relates to a method for optimizing parameters in a flood forecasting model by using previous rainfall. Background technique [0002] When people study hydrological phenomena in nature, they generalize complex hydrological phenomena, ignore secondary and random factors, retain the main factors and basic laws, and establish a mathematical-physical model with certain physical meaning, which is the hydrological model. A hydrological model is a generalization of the physical and logical processes of hydrological phenomena. The current flood forecasting technology is inseparable from the use of hydrological models. All hydrological models, including Xin’anjiang model, TOPMODEL, HEC-HMS model, TANK model, Sacramento model, etc., each have their own set of parameters. In practical applications, it is necessary to rely on measured data to calibrate the parameters of the mo...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/06G06Q50/26
CPCG06Q10/0635G06Q50/26Y02A10/40
Inventor 雷晓辉张静杨明祥王浩蒋云钟权锦田雨甘治国闻昕刘珂张云辉蔡思宇秦韬
Owner CHINA INST OF WATER RESOURCES & HYDROPOWER RES
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