Monthly electricity consumption prediction method comprehensively considering multiple economic factors

A forecasting method and comprehensively considered technology, applied in forecasting, data processing applications, instruments, etc., can solve problems such as errors and rarely consider seasonal factors.
CN107248013AInactive Publication Date: 2017-10-13WUHU POWER SUPPLY COMPANY OF STATE GRID ANHUI ELECTRIC POWER +1
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Patent Information

Authority / Receiving Office
CN Β· China
Patent Type
Applications(China)
Current Assignee / Owner
WUHU POWER SUPPLY COMPANY OF STATE GRID ANHUI ELECTRIC POWER
Publication Date
2017-10-13
Estimated Expiration
Not applicable Β· inactive patent

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Abstract

The invention discloses a monthly power consumption prediction method that comprehensively considers various economic factors, adopts the X-12-ARIMA model to decompose the monthly power and various economic factors into seasons; uses stepwise regression analysis to study the economic quantities and power consumption The correlation degree and regression model of electricity consumption were used to obtain preliminary prediction results; the annual power consumption forecast was carried out by using polynomial fitting, and the existing monthly power consumption forecast results were adjusted; the autoregressive integral sliding average Seasonal forecast corrections are carried out in each month to obtain a monthly electricity forecast model with good accuracy. Using the above technical solution, after seasonal decomposition of monthly electricity and economic volume, not only can use periodicity for forecasting, but also can effectively reduce the impact of volatility on regression analysis fitting accuracy and forecasting accuracy, and obtain good forecasting results.
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Description

technical field

[0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of electricity market demand forecasting, and in particular relates to a monthly electricity consumption forecasting method that comprehensively considers various economic factors. Background technique

[0002] With the continuous development of the economy, the demand for electricity in social production and life continues to increase, and electricity consumption has gradually become an important indicator of the level of social and economic development. At the same time, power industry reform policies such as the separation of power plants from power grids, grid bidding, and liberalization of electricity sales have prompted power companies to have higher requirements for their own economic benefits. For power supply enterprises and electricity retail enterprises, the quality and accuracy of monthly electricity forecasts have a very important impact on the reasonable arrangement of production, procurement a...

Claims

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