Probabilistic prediction method and device for maximum allowed current-carrying capacity of power transmission line

Abstract

The invention discloses a probabilistic prediction method and device for the maximum allowed current-carrying capacity of a power transmission line, and the method comprises the steps: obtaining probability data of wind speed forecast; and carrying out the probabilistic prediction of the maximum allowed current-carrying capacity of the power transmission line according to the probability data of wind speed forecast. According to the invention, the method can achieve the probabilistic prediction of the maximum allowed current-carrying capacity of the power transmission line according to the probability data of wind speed forecast, and solves problems that a prediction result is not reliable and very practical because the conventional dynamic capacity-increasing current-carrying capacity prediction technology does not give consideration to the accuracy of weather forecast during the prediction of the maximum allowed current-carrying capacity. According to the embodiment of the invention, the prediction result is high in reliability, is very practical, can serve as a reference for a regulation and control center, so as to the advanced arrangement of an operation mode of a power grid.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of electric power technology, in particular to a probabilistic prediction method and device for the maximum allowable carrying capacity of a transmission line. Background technique [0002] With the sustained and rapid development of the national economy, the electricity load continues to rise. Transmission lines in load-concentrated areas are limited by stable quotas during the peak period of power consumption, and the bottleneck problem of transmission capacity is very prominent. [0003] According to the current regulations, the allowable operating temperature of ACSR is 70°C. The stability limit of transmission lines is based on severe weather conditions: the ambient temperature is 40°C, the wind speed is 0.5m / s, and the sunshine intensity is 1000W / m 2 to calculate. The meteorological conditions in the actual operation process are generally better than the severe conditions. According to relevant literature, t...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, the current dynamic capacity increase technology does not take into account the accuracy of the weather forecast when predicting the maximum allowable flow rate of the line using the weather forecast parameters, which leads to the low practicality of the forecast results. The transmission capacity of the line cannot be fully utilized, resulting in the inability to give full play to the effect of dynamic capacity expansion

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