Method for predicting slope debris flows of red bed area and application thereof

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for predicting slope debris flows of a red bed area and application thereof. The method comprises the steps of (a) investigating and measuring to determine a gradientalpha of a debris flow body and a slope with no generation of debris flows and a debris flow body area A, an upper gradient beta and an upper area Au, a horizontal left side slope Theta 1, a horizontal right slope Theta2, a horizontal left side area AL, a horizontal right side area AR and the existence of a free surface, and determining an annual average rainfall R0 and a 1h rainfall variation coefficient CV of an investigation object, and measuring previous rainfall amount B in real time and stimulating a hourly rainfall I, (b) calculating and determining a prediction factor P through a formula 1 with the prediction factor P as a monitoring value, and (c) dividing a slope debris flow probability level of the red bed area according to the monitoring value. According to the method and the application, the effects and mutual influences of two factors of topography and rainfall causing the slope debris flows are fully considered, fastest warning response can be made without a large amountof historical observation data, and the disaster prevention applicability of the method and the application are improved greatly.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of mud-rock flow prevention and control engineering, in particular to a method and application for predicting mud-rock flow on a slope in a red layer area. Background technique [0002] The red bed area is composed of red sandstone, glutenite, siltstone, sandy shale and mudstone, etc., which is a typical layered rock mass. Debris flows on slopes in red layer areas generally have a thickness of about 1 mm. This type of slope is generally greater than 20°, and the slope surface has a certain thickness of soil layer. Under heavy rainfall conditions, rainwater seeps into the surface of the slope body, and the soil body Under the combined action of gravity and scouring force, it loses stability and mixes with water to form mudslides. [0003] The application number is 201510036831.9, and the Chinese patent document with the application date of January 23, 2015 discloses a mud-rock flow forecasting method, which is charact...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0008] Although the prior art represented by the above-mentioned patent documents all aim at the topographical conditions, rainfall conditions, and geological conditions of shallow soil landslides, the calculation methods of the topographical conditions are not the same, and the relationship between the topographical conditions and the rainfall conditions is also different; Different from the landslide thickness, the mechanism is also different, so the current method of studying slope debris flow is not mature enough, the prediction accuracy is low, and there is a lag in the forecast, and it cannot be well applied to the slope debris flow forecast in the red layer area.

Images