Short-term photovoltaic decomposition prediction method considering meteorological factor changes

Abstract

The invention discloses a short-term photovoltaic decomposition prediction method considering meteorological factor changes. The short-term photovoltaic decomposition prediction method comprises the steps that S1 a photovoltaic output time sequence is decomposed through a singular spectrum analysis method so as to obtain a low frequency sequence, a high frequency sequence and a noise sequence; S2main meteorological factors influencing the photovoltaic output are determined by using the Pearson correlation coefficient method and the sensitivity of the main meteorological factors for the photovoltaic output is analyzed; S3 a prediction model considering the meteorological factors is established by aiming at the low frequency sequence and the high frequency sequence with combination of the sensitivity; and S4 the low frequency sequence prediction value and the high frequency sequence prediction value are acquired according to the prediction mode, and the photovoltaic output prediction value is acquired according to the low frequency sequence prediction value and the high frequency sequence prediction value. The photovoltaic output is decomposed into different subsequences through thesingular spectrum analysis method to independently analyze the characteristics of each sequence; and the influence degree of unit change of different meteorological factors on the photovoltaic outputis acquired through correlation analysis and sensitivity analysis so as to more accurately predict the photovoltaic output.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of intermittent renewable energy forecasting such as wind power and photovoltaics, and more specifically relates to a short-term photovoltaic decomposition forecasting method (Singular Spectrum Analysis Method Considering Meteorological Factors, referred to as SSA-MF method) considering changes in meteorological factors. Background technique [0002] With the development of a high proportion of renewable energy, intermittent renewable energy such as wind power and photovoltaics has been increasingly popularized and applied. However, intermittent renewable energy sources such as wind power and photovoltaics have strong randomness and volatility, which makes the safety, stability and economic operation of the power system face important challenges. Therefore, how to accurately predict intermittent renewable energy such as wind power and photovoltaics has important practical guiding significance for the dispatc...

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Problems solved by technology

[0005] In view of the defects of the prior art, the purpose of the present invention is to provide a short-term photovoltaic decomposition prediction method considering the change of meteorological factors, aiming to solve the problem of low prediction accuracy in the prior art

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