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Hydropower station load interval prediction method

A technology of load interval and forecast method, applied in forecasting, data processing applications, instruments, etc., can solve the problem that forecast results cannot accurately describe the uncertainty of future load, and achieve the effect of improving the accuracy of forecast results

Active Publication Date: 2018-01-19
HUAZHONG UNIV OF SCI & TECH +1
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Problems solved by technology

[0003] Aiming at the above defects or improvement needs of the prior art, the present invention provides a hydropower station load interval prediction method, the purpose of which is to prevent the uncertainties in the future load from being accurately described by the prediction results because the existing hydropower station load prediction results are simple values question

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  • Hydropower station load interval prediction method

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[0026] In order to make the object, technical solution and advantages of the present invention clearer, the present invention will be further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and embodiments. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described here are only used to explain the present invention, not to limit the present invention. In addition, the technical features involved in the various embodiments of the present invention described below can be combined with each other as long as they do not constitute a conflict with each other.

[0027] figure 1 The flow chart of the hydropower station load interval prediction method provided by the present invention includes the following steps:

[0028] S1 When the actual load at the t-th moment of the d-th historical day satisfies , the actual load needs to be preprocessed, and the actual load at the tth time on the dth historical day after preprocessing is obtained according to th...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a hydropower station load interval prediction method. The historical load data is fully utilized, a similar day set of the day to be predicted is obtained by calculating the linear difference between the known moment load sequence of the day to be predicted and the actual load sequence of each historical day, the point predication is carried out on the day to-be-predicted according to the similar day of the day to be predicted, and then a large amount of historical load prediction error samples are analyzed to obtain a probability interval result of the possible valuesof the future loads. According to the interval prediction result, a hydropower station decision-making person can better recognize the uncertainty and the risk factors possibly existing in the futureloads during the production plan and the real-time scheduling, so that a more reasonable decision is made in time, and a basis is provided for the real-time load distribution of the hydropower station.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of optimized operation of hydropower energy, and more specifically relates to a load interval prediction method of a hydropower station. Background technique [0002] During the operation of a hydropower station, not only the daily load schedule needs to be considered, but also the deviation between the actual load process of the hydropower station and the previously planned value, that is, the problem of power station load fluctuations. The period of medium and long-term load forecasting is several months to several years, which is greatly affected by factors such as weather and economic environment. It is the prerequisite for formulating power system development plans and medium- and long-term operation plans. Ultra-short-term load forecasting is based on the current load and time period to predict the load after several minutes (generally several minutes to several hours). Generally, meteorological, econo...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
Inventor 周建中黄溜孙新德莫莉张胜袁柳何飞飞刘光彪刘伟
Owner HUAZHONG UNIV OF SCI & TECH
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