Airline passenger demand prediction method

A demand forecasting and passenger technology, applied in the field of civil aviation information services, can solve problems such as the impact of trade and personal income levels, and achieve good forecasting accuracy

Inactive Publication Date: 2018-02-16
FEIYOU TECH CO LTD
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Problems solved by technology

However, the demand for air passengers between the two places will also be affe

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  • Airline passenger demand prediction method

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[0033] The content of the present invention will be described below in conjunction with specific embodiments.

[0034] Factors affecting the demand of the civil aviation market, from a micro perspective, it is mainly affected by price, available transport capacity, air traffic control, airport capacity, purpose of passengers going back and forth between two places (tourism, business trip, family visit, etc.), etc.; from a macro perspective Look, the air traffic between the two places is affected by the economic development level (GDP) of the two places, the distance between the two places, the population of the two places, and other modes of transportation (high-speed rail).

[0035] According to the analysis of historical data, it is known that there is a correlation between the air traffic volume of the two places and the total air passenger flow of the two places, the distance between the two places, the capacity of the airports of the two places, the ticket price level, and...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a method for predicting passenger demand on airline routes, which includes the following steps: Step 1: Obtain data on factors affecting demand in the civil aviation market, including: the total amount of air passenger flow in two places, the capacity of airports in two places, the distance between two places, and the fare level , Whether there is a high-speed rail connection; Step 2, establish a forecasting model of passenger demand in the two places: passenger demand in the two places = f (total air passenger flow in the two places, airport capacity in the two places, distance between the two places, fare level, whether there is a high-speed rail connection ), among which, the passenger demand of the two places is positively correlated with the total air passenger flow of the two places and the distance between the two places, and the passenger demand of the two places is negatively correlated with the distance between the two places, the fare level and whether there is a high-speed rail connection; step 3, step 1 The obtained factor data affecting the demand of the civil aviation market is brought into the passenger demand forecast model of the two places established in step 2, and the passenger demand result of the route is calculated. The invention can comprehensively consider the market and economic development status, and effectively predict the demand of airline passengers.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for predicting airline passenger demand, and belongs to the technical field of civil aviation information services. Background technique [0002] Airlines make market forecasts to plan services to better meet market demand; from the perspective of forecast period division, it can be divided into short-term forecasts, mid-term forecasts and long-term forecasts: [0003] Short-term forecasting generally refers to a forecast period of 1 month to 18 months. It provides a reference for airlines’ daily operation decisions, mainly including airlines’ annual plans and flight plans. [0004] The medium-term forecast is a forecast period of 18 months to 5 years, which provides reference for airlines' development plans and market competition plans. [0005] Long-term forecasting is a forecast period greater than 5 years, and it is an important part of the airline's business plan. [0006] How to better predict the aviation dema...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/30
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/30
Inventor 黄文野郑洪峰王渊
Owner FEIYOU TECH CO LTD
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