Risk indicator weight probability calculation method for long-span bridge risk assessment

Abstract

The invention provides a method for calculating a risk indicator weight in long-span bridge risk assessment through the failure probability. The method is characterized by comprising the following steps of 1, building a long-span bridge structure random finite element model; 2, adopting a multinomial expansion based response surface collocation point obtaining method for considering a random variable in the step 1, calculating random response of the long-span bridge structure risk indicator under the most disadvantage effect combination, creating a limit state equation corresponding to the structure failure mode, and adopting a Monte Carlo method for simulating the limit state equation to obtain the failure probability of each structure risk indicator; 3, according to the failure probability of each structure risk indicator obtained through calculation in the step 2, and calculating the corresponding weight. The risk indicator weight is calculated by adopting the failure probability ofthe main failure state of the long-span bridge structure, the structure risk indicator weight is calculated in a quantitative mode, and the long-span bridge risk assessment conclusion objectivity isgreatly improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of risk assessment of long-span bridge structures, and in particular relates to a probability calculation method for risk index weights in risk assessment of long-span bridges. technical background [0002] In the past ten years, the number of long-span bridges built in my country has increased, and the potential safety risks in the design, construction and operation of bridge structures have become more and more prominent. In order to prevent and reduce the risk of long-span bridge construction, the relevant risk assessment system has been established in our country and implemented in engineering practice. An important task in the risk assessment of long-span bridges is to determine the weight of risk indicators. In the current practice of risk assessment of long-span bridges in my country, the arithmetic mean method based on expert investigation and the analytic hierarchy process are mainly used to calculate the we...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

In the current practice of risk assessment of long-span bridges in my country, the arithmetic mean method based on expert investigation and the analytic hierarchy process are mainly used to calculate the weight of risk indicators. Among them, the arithmetic mean method has a clear operation process, is easy to implement, and is most widely used in practice; The method combines quantitative and qualitative analysis, which is more scientific than the simple arithmetic mean method, but due to the complexity of the investigation work and data processing process, it is not widely used in practical engineering

[0003] The disadvantage of these two methods is that the source of basic data is obtained according to expert judgment, and the subjective consciousness of experts directly affects the determination of risk index weights, resulting in greater randomness and subjectivity in the determination of risk index weights: a group of experts The survey obtains a set of index weights, and changing a group of experts is likely to obtain another set of index weights; even the same group of experts may obtain different index weights when conducting the survey again

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