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A Risk Probability Assessment Method for Distribution Lines Based on Historical Factor Analysis

A technology for power distribution lines and risk probability, applied in electrical digital data processing, instruments, data processing applications, etc., can solve problems such as lack of objectivity, inability to more accurately assess the probability of risk occurrence, and achieve high accuracy.

Active Publication Date: 2022-01-25
GUANGXI POWER GRID CO LTD NANNING POWER SUPPLY BUREAU
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Problems solved by technology

In general, for the same type of equipment, the risk probability value calculated by the above method is the same, and has nothing to do with the equipment's own factors (such as equipment aging degree), external environmental factors (bad weather), etc. This calculation method lacks objective , cannot more accurately assess the probability of risk occurrence

Method used

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  • A Risk Probability Assessment Method for Distribution Lines Based on Historical Factor Analysis
  • A Risk Probability Assessment Method for Distribution Lines Based on Historical Factor Analysis
  • A Risk Probability Assessment Method for Distribution Lines Based on Historical Factor Analysis

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Embodiment Construction

[0039] The specific implementation of the present invention will be described in detail below in conjunction with the examples, but this does not constitute a limitation to the protection scope of the claims of the present invention.

[0040] Taking Nanning, Guangxi as an example, to assess the risk probability of distribution lines in Nanning, the specific implementation steps are as follows.

[0041] 1. First determine the key factors for evaluating the risk probability of distribution lines, including typhoons, ice and snow, thunderstorms, heavy fog, overload current, equipment aging, man-made or other external forces. The above key factors constitute a complete event group. Table 1 below

[0042] Table 1 Key factors for evaluating the risk probability of distribution lines

[0043]

[0044] 2. Aiming at statistical factors (probability of occurrence), a calculation model for evaluating the risk probability of distribution lines is established. The calculation model inc...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a distribution line risk probability assessment method based on historical factor analysis, comprising the following steps: (1), determining key factors for evaluating the risk probability of distribution lines; (2), aiming at statistical key factors, respectively Establish a probability calculation model for the emergence of key factors and a probability calculation model for distribution line tripping caused by key factors; (3), establish a calculation model for evaluating the risk probability of distribution lines for key factors that cannot be counted: (4) According to the steps ( 2) and the calculation model of step (3), calculate the distribution line risk probability corresponding to each key factor, and then calculate the overall risk probability of the distribution line in the evaluated area according to the following full probability formula. The method of the invention has high accuracy, provides decision-making basis for risk assessment of power distribution lines, can evaluate the risk probability of power distribution lines in a certain area, and can also evaluate the risk probability of a certain power distribution line according to actual conditions.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of power system risk analysis, and in particular relates to a risk probability assessment method for power distribution lines based on historical factor analysis. Background technique [0002] At present, the main method of my country's risk assessment of power grid equipment operation is to analyze the hazards after the risk occurs and the possibility of risk occurrence, and then comprehensively evaluate the size of the risk value to determine the level of risk. In the normal mode or under normal conditions of the power grid, when analyzing the probability value of the risk occurrence of power grid equipment, the method of quantifying relevant factors is mainly adopted, mainly for equipment type factors, fault category factors, and historical data statistical factors (average failures of similar equipment in N years in history) Frequency) gives a set of quantitative scores, and then calculates the risk probability va...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/06G06Q50/06G06F30/20G06F119/04G06F113/04
CPCG06Q10/0635G06Q50/06G06F2119/04G06F30/20
Inventor 李瑾张翀吴燕陶丁涛段博李弘杨满天商云龙
Owner GUANGXI POWER GRID CO LTD NANNING POWER SUPPLY BUREAU
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