A Flood Forecasting Method Based on Doubling Algorithm

Abstract

The invention discloses a flood forecasting method based on a multiple ratio algorithm, which includes: step 1, calculating the current flow value of the target small watershed; step 2, calculating the flow value in the upstream forecast period according to the actual measured grid point rainfall data; step 3, Compare the current flow value of the target small watershed with the flow value in the foreseeable period; step 4, when the flow value in the foreseeable period exceeds the current flow value of the target small watershed by more than twice the current flow value of the target small watershed, an early warning message is sent through the flood control forecasting system; it solves the problem of the prior art Mountain torrent disaster early warning is based on the monitoring of the current rainfall by the rainfall station, and it is determined whether to issue early warning information compared with the critical rainfall; because the upper reaches of many small watersheds have experienced light to moderate rain, the resulting changes in rainfall and flow are not enough to trigger the flood warning system. When the instantaneous flow rate suddenly doubled, it caused flash floods, and tourists in the river channel were not prevented enough to cause casualties and other problems.

Description

Technical field

[0001] The present invention belongs to a flood forecasting technique, in particular to a flood forecasting method based on a multiplier algorithm. Background:

[0002] Flash floods occur in mountainous areas. China's hilly area accounts for more than 2 / 3 of the national land area, from west to east presents a three-step ladder, in the slope zone and the mountain system and its marginal area of the transition of steps at all levels, the height difference between ridges and valleys is more than 2000 meters, the mountain slope is 30 ° to 50 °, the riverbed is steeper than the decline, more falls and waterfalls, easy to form flash flood disasters.

[0003] Flash flood disasters are the main types of deaths caused by flood disasters in China: in the 1990s, 1900 to 3700 people died due to flash flood disasters every year, accounting for about 62% to 69% of the deaths from flood disasters; From 2000 to 2010, the number of flash flood deaths averaged 1,079 per year, acco...