A wind power prediction method and system

Abstract

The invention relates to a wind power prediction method and system. The method comprises the following steps: step one, on the basis of historical data of a wind power, carrying out scene prediction and interval prediction on a wind power within preset time periods to obtain representative scene sets and the interval prediction results of the wind power during all preset periods; step two, withinthe preset periods, screening the representative scene sets within the same periods based on the obtained interval prediction results; and step three, connecting all screened representative scene setsof all preset periods according to a time sequence to obtain a daily wind power sequence with consideration of the time correlation, and carrying out wind power prediction based on the daily wind power sequence. With the method provided by the invention, the accuracy of prediction of the wind power is improved substantially; the calculation load is reduced; and the calculation efficiency is high.The wind power prediction method and system can be applei dto the wind power prediction field widely.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to the field of wind power prediction, and more specifically, relates to a wind power prediction method and system based on the combination of interval prediction and scene analysis. Background technique [0002] The change of wind power output has certain characteristics such as randomness and volatility, and at the same time has certain seasonal and intraday changes. pose serious challenges. The improvement of wind power prediction accuracy will help the power system dispatching department to arrange dispatching plans reasonably and effectively reduce the impact of wind power on the entire power grid. [0003] At present, wind power forecasting methods mainly include deterministic point forecasting, interval forecasting and scene forecasting. Point forecasting technology is the most mature but has the disadvantage of low forecasting accuracy. Interval forecasting can give the fluctuation range of wind power output in t...

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] Aiming at the problems of low computational efficiency and low accuracy of wind power forecasting, the purpose of the present invention is to provide a wind power forecasting method and system, which can take into account the wind power forecasting process by combining the wind power interval forecasting method with the scene forecasting method The rapidity and accuracy of prediction results provide a reference for the operation and planning decision-making of power systems including wind power

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