Wind speed power probability mapping method in wind power forecast

A technology of wind power prediction and mapping method, applied in wind power generation, AC network circuit, climate change adaptation, etc., can solve the problem of inability to guarantee the output level of the unit, the same, etc., to improve the voltage utilization rate and the overall conversion efficiency of the device, weaken the The effect of dead pixel effect and high computational efficiency

Active Publication Date: 2018-08-31
GUODIAN NANJING AUTOMATION
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Problems solved by technology

However, observing the historical operation data of wind turbines, it can be seen that due to the influence of wind speed monitoring accuracy and the actual operating environment of the wind turbines, the same wind speed cannot guarantee the same output level of the wind turbines.

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  • Wind speed power probability mapping method in wind power forecast
  • Wind speed power probability mapping method in wind power forecast
  • Wind speed power probability mapping method in wind power forecast

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Embodiment Construction

[0028] The present invention will be described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings. The following examples are only used to illustrate the technical solution of the present invention more clearly, but not to limit the protection scope of the present invention.

[0029] like Figure 1-Figure 5 As shown, the steps of a probabilistic mapping method of wind speed and power in wind power prediction are as follows:

[0030] Step 1: Obtain the actual wind speed, actual power data, and wind turbine information of the historical operation of the wind turbine.

[0031] The source of historical data is the real wind speed and power data of wind turbines in the SCADA monitoring system. The data scale is as described in the "State Grid Corporation of China Enterprise Standard Q / GDW 10588-2015 Wind Power Prediction Functional Specification": Wind farms that have been put into operation for less than one year All historical power data after commissioning should be...

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Abstract

The invention belongs to the technical field of wind power generation, and particularly relates to a wind speed power probability mapping method in wind power forecast. The wind speed power probability mapping method comprises the following steps of acquiring historical running wind speeds, power data and information of a wind power generator; equally dividing a normal wind speed interval (0-25m / s) into a plurality of wind speed subintervals, and solving a probability density function and an accumulation distribution function of the interval power distribution with regard to each wind speed subinterval; and solving a mapping power value P according to a reverse function of the accumulation distribution function of the interval with regard to a given wind speed v, and obtaining a final result by calculation for many times to perform average value taking operation, wherein the result is the power mapping value P of the wind power generator under the wind speed v. By employing the method,a conventional wind power curve mapping method in wind power forecast can be substituted, the probability and the diversity which are considered during the forecast process are improved, and the actual running state of a fan can be truly reflected.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of wind power generation, in particular to a probabilistic mapping method of wind speed and power in wind power prediction. Background technique [0002] With the shortage of fossil energy and the requirements of clean and environmental protection, large-scale wind power generation has been connected to the grid in recent years, but its random and intermittent characteristics significantly reduce the reliability of its grid connection. In order to increase the scale of wind power connected to the grid, reduce the impact on the large grid after grid connection, and improve the efficiency of power system generation scheduling planning, it is necessary to perform short-term and ultra-short-term power forecasting for wind turbines. [0003] In existing research, wind power prediction is mainly divided into two main steps, that is, first predicting the wind speed value that will affect the future power generation...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): H02J3/38
CPCH02J3/386Y02E10/76Y02A30/00
Inventor 刘玉奇刘文彪纪陵吴世伟李靖霞陈刚王紫东
Owner GUODIAN NANJING AUTOMATION
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