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Method and device for dynamically assessing full-life cycle real-time reliability of shale gas fracturing equipment

A full-life-cycle, dynamic evaluation technology, applied in electrical testing/monitoring, instrumentation, electrical digital data processing, etc., can solve problems such as increasing the uncertainty of reliability evaluation results and ignoring the uncertainty of component degradation processes

Active Publication Date: 2018-09-04
CHINA UNIV OF PETROLEUM (BEIJING)
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Problems solved by technology

However, in existing studies, it is usually assumed that the failure rate of components is a time-independent constant, ignoring the uncertainty of the component degradation process, that is, the failure rate has time-varying characteristics, and the failure rate is usually given based on experience. increase the uncertainty of the reliability assessment results

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  • Method and device for dynamically assessing full-life cycle real-time reliability of shale gas fracturing equipment
  • Method and device for dynamically assessing full-life cycle real-time reliability of shale gas fracturing equipment
  • Method and device for dynamically assessing full-life cycle real-time reliability of shale gas fracturing equipment

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Embodiment Construction

[0062] In order to enable those skilled in the art to better understand the technical solutions in the present application, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present application will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the drawings in the embodiments of the present application. Obviously, the described The embodiments are only some of the embodiments of the present application, but not all of them. Based on the embodiments in this application, all other embodiments obtained by persons of ordinary skill in the art without creative efforts shall fall within the scope of protection of this application.

[0063] During the process of implementing the present application, the inventors of the present application found that: when the traditional reliability evaluation model evaluates the reliability of the equipment, it ignores the impact of the current degradation state of the equipment on the future reliability. The fault diagnosis process...

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Abstract

Embodiments of the invention provide a method and device for dynamically assessing full-life cycle real-time reliability of shale gas fracturing equipment. The method comprises the following steps of:fitting a failure rate of an appointed component under a natural degradation state on the basis of Weibull distribution, and establishing a dynamic Bayesian network-based reliability prediction model; establishing a dynamic Bayesian network-based network fault cause reasoning model by taking monitoring parameters of the appointed component as fault symptom nodes; obtaining monitoring parameter values of the appointed component in real time, and inputting the monitoring parameter values into the fault cause reasoning model so as to predict the current state of the appointed component; and whenthe current state of the appointed component is abnormal, updating the reliability prediction model according to the current abnormal state of the appointed component, and predicting reliability of the appointed component according to the updated reliability model. The method and device are capable of improving the correctness of result for assessing full-life cycle real-time reliability of shalegas fracturing equipment.

Description

technical field [0001] The present application relates to the technical field, in particular to a method and device for real-time reliability and dynamic assessment of shale gas fracturing equipment in its entire life cycle. Background technique [0002] Shale gas fracturing equipment has been in a high-pressure, large-displacement, and high-power working environment for a long time, and its health status is obviously degraded. Real-time reliability has always been the focus of attention of designers and field operators. Traditional reliability analysis methods include reliability block diagrams, fault trees, failure mode and effects analysis, and static Bayesian networks. However, the above methods are suitable for static reliability analysis and not suitable for dynamic systems with reliability varying with time. [0003] In order to establish the reliability model of the dynamic system, the Markov chain and the dynamic fault tree are used for the dynamic evaluation of rel...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06K9/62G06F17/50G05B23/02
CPCG05B23/024G06F30/20G06F18/29
Inventor 胡瑾秋张来斌张鑫
Owner CHINA UNIV OF PETROLEUM (BEIJING)
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