Markov-chain-based power grid toughness evaluation method in consideration of time-space characteristic of influence of typhoon

Abstract

The invention discloses a Markov-chain-based power grid toughness evaluation method in consideration of the time-space characteristic of the influence of a typhoon. The method comprises a step 1 of based on a traditional component fragility curve and in consideration of the time-space characteristic of the influence of typhoon weather on the power grid, calculating a time-varying failure rate in typhoon weather; a step 2 of determining the possible failure time of typhoon-affected components in the system and the corresponding failure probability according to the time-varying curve of the component failure rate by using a sampling method; a step 3 of based on the Markov chain and according to the possible failure time of each component and the corresponding failure probability, calculatingthe system state transition probability matrix corresponding to the possible failure time of each component so as to obtain the system state probability vector under each time period; and a step 4 ofaccording to the system state probability vector under each time period, evaluating the toughness levels of the possible states of the system in each time period, and applying a Monte Carlo method toevaluate the toughness level of the system.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of power system analysis, and in particular relates to a grid resilience evaluation method. Background technique [0002] Under normal operating conditions, the power system needs to meet the corresponding safety and reliability criteria for the expected accident set. Modern power systems can generally meet the corresponding reliability indicators. However, when encountering extreme weather, the power system is extremely fragile. The reason is that the reliability of the power system generally focuses on accidents that occur frequently and have little impact on the power grid, while the probability of extreme weather is often very low, but the impact on the power grid is extremely serious. Resilience is currently used to measure the power system's ability to prepare for and adapt to changing conditions and its ability to withstand and recover quickly from disturbances. By evaluating the resilience of the power syst...

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] Aiming at the time-varying failure rate of components brought about by typhoon weather’s influence on the system’s space-time characteristics and the toughness evaluation problem in the whole process of typhoon weather’s influence on system components, the present invention provides a Markov chain-based grid resilience assessment method

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