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Regional grain and oil market price monitoring analysis and prediction system and monitoring method

A market price and forecasting system technology, applied in market forecasting, instruments, data processing applications, etc., can solve the problems of many links, low work efficiency, backward technical means, etc., and achieve the effect of scientific generation, more generation and strong compatibility

Inactive Publication Date: 2018-11-20
中国天津粮油批发交易市场
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  • Summary
  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0003] The original Tianjin grain and oil market price monitoring system used traditional telephone, fax, e-mail and other reporting and data processing methods. It is difficult to meet the actual requirements in terms of performance and accuracy, and a scientific performance appraisal system for the monitoring team has not been established, which also affects the initiative, creativity and continuity of work
[0004] History, reality and the future require us to carry out in-depth, systematic and scientific quantitative research on the operating laws of the grain market and release accurate and timely forecasts. However, for a long time, China's grain market trend analysis and price change forecasts have remained in qualitative research above; the research on the trend of grain futures on grain market prices is also limited to individual varieties and specific conditions

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  • Regional grain and oil market price monitoring analysis and prediction system and monitoring method

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Embodiment 1

[0056]The regional grain and oil market price monitoring analysis and prediction system of the present invention includes a database, an input module, a report data generation module, a basic price query module, a summary statistics release module, an early warning monitoring and analysis module, and a system performance evaluation module. The database is multiple Dimensional database architecture; such as the use of a multi-dimensional virtual data warehouse composite architecture, which breaks away from a single traditional relational logic database architecture to achieve multi-dimensional data collection and analysis; enables the unique functions of a multi-dimensional database to store data in a relational database In order to manage, conveniently collect the data of each monitoring station, and keep the real and useful data for decision-making. The input module includes a price input unit and a price review unit to input price collection data to the database; The report d...

Embodiment 2

[0069] The monitoring system of the present invention also includes a price index analysis module, which is used to intercept the wholesale and retail price and quantity data of the grain and oil price monitoring system according to the regional grain and oil price index base period and variety and its weight, to form the corresponding grain and oil variety index and comprehensive index and Graphically, index tables and trend charts are finally formed; at the same time, the national grain and oil price index is imported to obtain, and the comparison between the whole country and specific regions, such as the Tianjin index, provides services for intuitive understanding of the national and Tianjin grain and oil price levels and trends. In the price index analysis In this paper, a scientific and reasonable grain and oil price index analysis model is established, and the weight of each grain variety is adjusted in time according to the transaction quantity and market price of each g...

Embodiment 3

[0085] The described early warning monitoring analysis module includes a wholesale price prediction model, which is based on a time series analysis method for actual prediction, and is extrapolated according to the difference sequence dy in the wholesale price time series Y, where Yt is a certain grain and oil product in a certain month, such as wheat The wholesale price of ; that is, t is the month specific to a certain year.

[0086] Y t =Y t-1 +dy t in,

[0087] dy t =-13.56-0.2816dy t-1 -0.3196dy t-2 ;

[0088] dy t-1 =Y t-1 -Y t-2 ;

[0089] dy t-2 =Y t-2 -Y t-3 ;

[0090] Referring to the relevant historical data, we forecast and calculate the error on the wholesale price of wheat in Tianjin.

[0091] The wholesale wheat price values ​​for December, November and October 2002 are 1160, 1140 and 1140 respectively, namely:

[0092] dy 2002.12 =Y 2002.12 -Y 2002.11 =20

[0093] dy 2002.11 =Y 2002.11 -Y 2002.10 =0

[0094] According to the formula dy ...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a regional grain and oil market price monitoring analysis and prediction system and method. The regional grain and oil market price monitoring analysis and prediction system includes a database, an input module, a report data generation module, a basic price inquiry module, a summary statistics issuance module, an early warning monitoring analysis module and a system performance evaluation module; the database is a multi-dimensional database structure; the input module comprises a price input unit and a price examination unit and is used for inputting price acquisitiondata to the database; and the report data generation module is used for generating monitoring reports according to the information in the database. The whole process of market price monitoring is informationized, networked and data-based; information acquisition, analysis, prediction, release and transmission are based on work sites of the whole city and the quantitative analysis of the huge datasamples accumulated over the years; and meanwhile, the work performance evaluation of the information staff is brought into the daily management of the platform, which is scientific, efficient, accurate and sustainable.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of market monitoring, and in particular relates to a regional grain and oil market price monitoring analysis and forecasting system. Background technique [0002] In recent years, my country's grain market prices have fluctuated frequently and the range of changes has increased. The country has continuously introduced a number of macro-control policies and measures to stabilize grain prices. The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Grain Administration have successively put forward requirements to further improve the grain and oil market supply and price stability. work, keep abreast of market trends in a timely manner, increase monitoring efforts, compare, check, and analyze monitoring data, and report relevant monitoring data and analysis conclusions to the main leaders of provincial people's governments in a timely manner; it is required to do a good job in market monitoring work, and es...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q30/02G06Q10/06G06Q50/26
CPCG06Q10/06395G06Q30/0206G06Q50/26
Inventor 谢智勇吴维吉杨广靖翟林秦宝强刘旭辉杨超孟智
Owner 中国天津粮油批发交易市场