A quantitative analysis method of aviation delay propagation

Abstract

The invention discloses a quantitative analysis method of aviation delay propagation, belonging to the technical field of aviation delay analysis. Firstly, the arrival delay time series from airport ito airport j and the departure delay time series of airport j are constructed, and the transfer entropy TE (Y(right arrow)X) of the t-th time slice is calculated to quantify the shift of the generalized Markov condition, and the causality of arrival delay to departure delay is tested. Then several arrival delay time series and departure delay time series with the same statistical characteristicsare reconstructed as substitute data, and the causality of each substitute data is destroyed; the transfer entropy (TE) is calculated with the substitute data, and the significance test is carried out. Pairs of tests are conducted between any two airports to establish the weighted edge, build the network model of aviation delay propagation, and use the network model to analyze flight delay. The invention only needs to analyze the causality between the delay time series, and can quantitatively calculate the delay propagation situation between the airports.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of civil aviation delay analysis, and in particular relates to a quantitative analysis method for aviation delay propagation. Background technique [0002] Delay propagation is a major factor affecting flight delays; since different flights may share the same aircraft within a day, delays on an arriving flight may be sustained on the departing flight of that aircraft. Also, due to the sharing of ground resources as well as crew, the delay of an arriving flight can be propagated downstream to departing flights of different aircraft. As a result, delays piled up, making the situation even worse. [0003] Therefore, the scientific community has paid a lot of attention to the problem of delayed propagation. The study of delay propagation can be traced back to the 1990s. Boswell and Evans developed an analytical model for estimating consecutive flight delays and found that downstream delays were about 1.8 times...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0004] Despite the efforts of the scientific community to investigate the propagation effects of flight delays, gaps remain: the studies mentioned above modeled how initial delays subsequently become system-wide delays; however, so far few studies have proposed a clear quantification Index of propagation effects between each airport pair

Furthermore, the delay propagation between flights depends on several connection resources and the amount of buffer in the planning time

Existing models take into account the influence of major factors, namely the aircraft, crew and passengers; however, it is difficult to fully account for all details of the dynamics behind the propagation process

Images