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Energy Demand Forecasting Method Based on Empirical Decomposition and Combined Forecasting

A combined forecasting and demand forecasting technology, applied in forecasting, data processing applications, instruments, etc., can solve problems such as non-existent models, and achieve the effects of improved accuracy, high calculation efficiency, and simple calculations

Active Publication Date: 2021-11-30
SICHUAN UNIV
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Problems solved by technology

[0005] In addition, at present, some researches have been carried out on decomposition forecasting, combined forecasting and dynamic forecasting methods, but some work is still needed to improve the forecasting accuracy, and there is no model that combines the above methods

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  • Energy Demand Forecasting Method Based on Empirical Decomposition and Combined Forecasting
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  • Energy Demand Forecasting Method Based on Empirical Decomposition and Combined Forecasting

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Embodiment Construction

[0032] Aiming at the deficiencies of the existing technology, the present invention provides a dynamic self-adaptive energy demand forecasting method with machine learning capability, and improves the efficiency of energy demand forecasting by introducing an entropy-based error evaluation index, adopting empirical decomposition technology and combined forecasting methods precision. Such as figure 1 As shown, the specific steps include:

[0033] Step 1: Use empirical decomposition technology to decompose the energy consumption of the whole society by industry, and obtain the energy consumption of each sub-industry.

[0034] The energy can be water energy, electric energy or gas energy. Using empirical decomposition technology, the present invention can decompose the energy consumption of the whole society four times according to the nature of energy consumption in production and life, industry category, and industry category. Such as figure 2 , the industries included in th...

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Abstract

The invention relates to the field of demand forecasting, discloses an energy demand forecasting method based on empirical decomposition and combination forecasting, improves the accuracy of energy demand forecasting and facilitates programming. The steps of the present invention first use the empirical decomposition technology to decompose the energy consumption of the society into industries to obtain the energy consumption of each sub-industry; then use the method of combined forecasting to predict the energy demand of each sub-industry; The demand forecast value calculates the society's energy demand forecast value. The invention is applicable to energy demand forecasting such as water, electricity and gas.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of demand forecasting, in particular to an energy demand forecasting method based on empirical decomposition and combination forecasting. Background technique [0002] Energy plays a vital role in economic growth and development in any country, and energy demand forecasting is the primary prerequisite for achieving maintainable energy management and maintenance scheduling goals, as well as the safe operation of modern energy management. And due to economic growth, the importance of effective and accurate energy demand forecasting models has become increasingly prominent, and the research on forecasting methods has attracted the attention of major research. In recent years, a large number of scholars have proposed methods for energy demand forecasting, both in terms of science and engineering. As far as the current research results are concerned, there are mainly two forecasting methods: one is the classical forecasti...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06
Inventor 姚黎明马净侯淑华徐忠雯
Owner SICHUAN UNIV