A path set combination method for multi-stage system reliability analysis based on cumulative damage model

Abstract

The invention provides a path set combination method for multi-stage system reliability analysis based on cumulative damage model, which comprises the following steps: step S1, establishing a fault tree and a Bayesian network of the multi-stage system; S2, obtaining the minimum path set of each stage of the multi-stage system, and sorting the minimum path set; 3, disjointing the minimum path set to obtain the disjoint path set; S4: obtaining the simplified path set; sorting the simplified path set to obtain the path set combination of the multi-stage system. S5: calculating the cumulative failure distribution of the components at any stage of the path set combination of the multi-stage system, the life probability distribution under the reliability condition of each stage and the reliability at any stage; The invention avoids the problems of large scale of conditional probability table, large storage space requirement and large computation amount caused by the traditional Bayesian network method due to the excessive dispersion of stage states, and PMS, the BDD method has strict requirements for variable ordering and is difficult to solve the system reliability problems with multiple distributed components.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of multi-stage system reliability modeling, in particular to a multi-stage system reliability analysis road set combination method based on cumulative damage model. Background technique [0002] Multi-phase systems (Phased-Mission Systems, PMS) widely exist in large and complex equipment such as aerospace and automobiles. The completion of large-scale and complex equipment functions is often composed of a series of phase tasks. For example, a geosynchronous orbit satellite needs to undergo multiple orbit change phases during the orbit transfer phase, such as the sun capture phase, the earth capture phase, and the earth indication phase. The stages of PMS belong to a series relationship, and if any stage task fails, the entire system task will fail. The tasks of each stage of PMS are different, so the system composition, component configuration, and task duration of each stage are also different. In addition, there ar...

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Problems solved by technology

[0008] In view of this, the object of the present invention is to provide a multi-stage system reliability analysis road set combination method based on the cumulative damage model, which avoids the large scale of the conditional probability table caused by the excessive dispersion of the stage state in the traditional Bayesian network method. The problem of large storage space requirements and large amount of calculation, as well as the strict requirements of the PMS-BDD method on the ordering of variables, and the difficulty in solving system reliability problems with multiple distribution types of components

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