Short-term traffic flow change prediction method and device, computer equipment and storage medium

Abstract

The invention, which is applicable to the transportation field, provides a short-term traffic flow change prediction method and device, a computer equipment and a storage medium. The method comprisesthe following steps: acquiring traffic flow data of a predicted road segment in real time; on the basis of the traffic flow data, constructing a traffic flow prediction model with a forgetting factor;and according to a particle filtering algorithm, eliminating random noises of the traffic flow prediction model and acquiring and outputting an optimal short-term traffic flow change prediction value. According to the short-term traffic flow change prediction method provided by the embodiment of the invention, the traffic flow prediction model is constructed by introducing the forgetting factor;and with the model, the traffic flow data can be updated and corrected in real time and thus the traffic flow change is fitted well, so that a phenomenon that the prediction precision is affected by the early collected traffic flow data because of the time-varying of the traffic flow is avoided and thus the good prediction effect is realized. Meanwhile, the random noise of the model is eliminatedby particle filtering, so that the accuracy and feasibility of the prediction are improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the traffic field, and in particular relates to a short-term traffic flow change prediction method, device, computer equipment and storage medium. Background technique [0002] With the development of intelligent transportation system, traffic control and real-time traffic guidance have become the research hotspots in the field of transportation. For traffic control and real-time traffic guidance, the accuracy and reliability of traffic flow forecasting is a necessary condition and an important basis for its realization, and short-term traffic flow forecasting is more important. For traffic flow forecasting, it can be divided into long-term traffic flow forecasting and short-term traffic flow forecasting according to the forecast time range. Short-term traffic flow prediction generally refers to the prediction of traffic conditions with a time span of no more than 15 minutes in the future. It is the core content of the intelli...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

For a long time, scholars have not realized the existence of traffic flow uncertainty and its influence on the state of traffic flow. It was not until recent years that some people began to study the uncertainty of traffic flow, and some people proposed to apply fuzzy theory and chaos theory For the uncertainty problem in the traffic field, these assumptions can solve the influence of traffic flow uncertainty to a certain extent, but due to the complex nonlinear structure of short-term traffic flow, the existing short-term traffic prediction methods are still Failing to model and predict it accurately

[0004] It can be seen that the existing short-term traffic forecasting methods still fail to solve the impact of traffic flow uncertainty on the forecasting accuracy, and the forecasting effect is not good.

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