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A method for estimating the average number of failure intervals of weapons and equipment in use per use
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A technology of mean interval between failures and equipment, applied in complex mathematical operations and other directions, can solve problems such as incomplete theory, inaccurate calculation results, and mismatched physical meanings.
Active Publication Date: 2019-03-12
中国人民解放军92942部队
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Therefore, there are three deficiencies in current engineering using methods based on exponential distribution to evaluate the reliability of use-by-use weapons and equipment. Non-continuous failure frequency variable; second, the physical meaning does not match, the probability meaning contained in the exponential distribution does not match the probability events of the use of weapons and equipment failures; third, the calculation results are inaccurate, due to the incompleteness of the theory Does not match the physical meaning, the evaluation results given by the method based on the exponential distribution assumption are approximate results
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Embodiment 1
[0041] see figure 1 , which is a flowchart of a method for evaluating the mean number of times between failures of use-by-use weaponry provided by this embodiment. A method for evaluating mean times between failures of use-by-use weapons and equipment, comprising the following steps:
[0042] S1: Obtain a point estimate of the mean number of times between failures
[0043]
[0044] in, is the maximum likelihood estimate of the probability V of the armament being used without failure in a single use.
[0045] Further, the maximum likelihood estimation value of the probability V of the non-failure of the weapon equipment in a single use The way to get it is:
[0046] S101: Construct the maximum likelihood function L(V):
[0047] L(V)=V (N-Z) W Z (2)
[0048] Among them, N is the total number of effective reliability tests conducted by the weaponry, Z is the cumulative number of failures of the weaponry in N reliability tests, and V is the number of failures of th...
Embodiment 2
[0101] Based on the above embodiments, this embodiment evaluates the average number of times between failures of a certain carrier-based aircraft catapult (example needs, not real data).
[0102] Step 1. Analyze and process reliability test data
[0103] ①Assume that a carrier-based aircraft catapult has carried out a total of N=2000 reliability tests, and Z=5 failures occurred during the period (required for examples, not real data).
[0104] ② The total number of tests corresponding to the 1st to 5th failures is shown in Table 3:
[0105] table 3
[0106] Sequence of failure
1
2
3
4
5
total number of trials
F 1 ＝438
F 2 ＝981
F 3 ＝1415
F 4 ＝1792
F 5 ＝1996
[0107] According to the above table, the 1st to 5th failure events are counted as probability events A 1 ,A 2 ,...,A 5 , and calculate the number of continuous tests without failure before each failure, as shown in Table 4:
[0108] Table 4
[0109]
[0110] Step...
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Abstract
The present invention provides a method for evaluating the average number of failure intervals of a weapon equipment by use, and a calculating method for giving the point estimate of the mean failureinterval, The one-sided lower confidence limit for the average number of failure intervals, the lower and upper limits of the two-sided confidence intervals of the mean number of fault intervals, theobtained Estimates of points, one-sided confidence lower limit, The lower and upper limits of the two-sided confidence intervals provide a comprehensive assessment of the average number of breakdownsper use of weaponry, Thus, the problems such as inaccurate modeling and mismatch in physical meaning of the average failure intervals of shipborne aircraft ejectors can be solved, and a complete evaluation model of the average failure intervals of shipborne aircraft ejectors can be established, and the accuracy of the evaluation results can be improved.
Description
technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of weapon equipment reliability engineering, and in particular relates to a method for evaluating the average number of intervals between failures of use-by-use weapon equipment. Background technique [0002] For weapons and equipment that are used in turn, the existing solution is to ignore the phenomenon that the failure probability distribution is discretized due to the discreteness of the equipment use process, and still follow the standards such as GJB 899A-2009 "Reliability Identification and Acceptance Test", The method given in the literature based on the assumption of an exponential distribution calculates the MCBF (mean number between failures) of use-by-use weapons. [0003] The exponential distribution is a continuous probability distribution. Generally, the failure time of electronic products (such as naval computer, marine communication equipment, etc.) and large complex repairable equipment (...
Claims
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