Flight delay model establishment method, prediction method and device

A technology for flight delay and model building, applied in the field of machine learning, it can solve the problems that are not proposed, can not get the ideal prediction effect, affect the normal flight takeoff plan, etc., and achieve the effect of preventing overfitting.

Pending Publication Date: 2019-03-19
青岛心中有数科技有限公司
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Problems solved by technology

Moreover, the weather will affect the normal departure plan of the flight in multiple time and space dimensions. The weather for several hours before and after the flight departure time, the weather at the airport where the flight departs and its surrounding areas, and the weather at the airport and its surrounding areas when the flight arrives may all affect to the actual departure time of the flight
Due to t

Method used

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  • Flight delay model establishment method, prediction method and device
  • Flight delay model establishment method, prediction method and device
  • Flight delay model establishment method, prediction method and device

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Embodiment 1

[0029] The embodiment of the present invention provides a kind of flight delay model building method, see figure 1 A flow chart of a flight delay model building method shown, including the following steps:

[0030] Step S102, acquiring historical data, and performing data preprocessing on the historical data.

[0031]Historical data includes historical flight dynamics data and refined weather forecast historical data; flight dynamics historical data should cover a period of more than two years, including but not limited to the following elements of historical flights: departure airport, arrival airport, planned departure time, The airline that actually flies the flight, and the delay time between the actual departure time of the flight and the planned departure time. The unit of flight delay time is minutes. If there is no departure delay of the flight, the delay time is 0; otherwise, it is a positive number.

[0032] Data preprocessing includes preprocessing flight dynamic ...

Embodiment 2

[0062] Embodiment 2 of the present invention provides a method for predicting flight delays, which is applied to the flight delay model obtained in the first aspect and one of its possible implementations, see figure 2 A flowchart of a method for predicting flight delays is shown, including the following steps:

[0063] Step S202, acquiring flight information data and refined weather forecast data for future flights, and performing data preprocessing on the flight information data and refined weather forecast data.

[0064] First, obtain flight information data and refined weather forecast data. The flight information data includes the departure airport, arrival airport, planned departure time, and flying airline, etc. The refined weather forecast data is the hourly weather forecast within 10 days released on the same day . Then the weather forecast data is preprocessed. After the preprocessing, it is necessary to obtain the weather forecast at the nearest 4 latitude and lon...

Embodiment 3

[0072] Embodiment 3 of the present invention provides a model building device for flight delays, see image 3 A schematic structural diagram of a flight delay model building device shown, including a historical data module 31, an input feature module 32, a stratified sampling module 33, a feature selection module 34, a basic model module 35 and a model combination module 36, each of the above modules The function is as follows:

[0073] Historical data module 31, is used for obtaining historical data, carries out data preprocessing to historical data; Historical data comprises flight dynamic historical data and refinement weather forecast historical data;

[0074] Input feature module 32, for the historical data after data preprocessing constructs the input feature of flight delay model; Input feature comprises the non-weather feature of flight and the weather feature of flight;

[0075] Stratified sampling module 33, is used for carrying out random stratified sampling to the...

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Abstract

The invention provides a flight delay model establishment method and device and a prediction method and device, and relates to the technical field of machine learning, and the method comprises the specific steps: obtaining historical data, and carrying out the data preprocessing of the historical data; constructing input characteristics of a flight delay model for the historical data after data preprocessing; wherein the input characteristics comprise non-weather characteristics of the flight and weather characteristics of the flight; performing random stratified sampling on the historical data after data preprocessing to obtain a training set, a first test set and a second test set; determining a target weather feature from the weather features of the flight based on a preset algorithm; establishing a corresponding basic model according to the non-weather characteristics of the flights of the training set and the at least one target weather characteristic; over-fitting of the basic model on the training set is prevented through expression of the basic model on the first test set; and combining the plurality of basic models into a flight delay model through the second test set. Overfitting can be prevented, and an ideal prediction effect is obtained.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of machine learning, in particular to a flight delay model building method, prediction method and device. Background technique [0002] Accurate prediction of flight delays in advance will help passengers choose more suitable flights according to the possibility of flight delays, and for passengers who have purchased air tickets, it will help passengers plan their time reasonably or modify their travel plans in a timely manner. [0003] Weather is the most important factor causing flight delays, accounting for about 60% of all domestic delayed flights. Severe weather can cause planes to be unable to take off and a large number of passengers to be stranded. Therefore, the prediction of flight delays only based on flight dynamics and historical data will lead to inaccurate predictions due to insufficient predictors. There are many weather reasons for flight delays, such as low visibility, low cloud base, hig...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06F17/50G06Q10/04
CPCG06Q10/04G06F30/15
Inventor 宋文俊李方星刘光胜
Owner 青岛心中有数科技有限公司
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