A Bayesian model-based multivariate power grid secondary fault probability estimation method

Abstract

The invention discloses a Bayesian model-based multivariate power grid secondary fault probability estimation method, which comprises the following steps of: establishing a multivariate power grid fault set, and dividing faults into a secondary fault set, a condition fault set and a fault sample set; performing classified statistics on the fault samples in the fault sample set, and calculating theprior probability of fault occurrence; according to the Bayesian model, calculating the probability of occurrence of a next fault when the condition fault occurs; respectively calculating the probability of all secondary faults caused by each condition fault; and estimating the probability of secondary faults in the multivariate power grid. According to the method, the probability of secondary faults caused by faults can be estimated, power grid workers can carry out early warning on the secondary faults conveniently, and the operation safety of the power grid can be guaranteed to a large extent.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of power grid fault diagnosis, and in particular relates to a method for estimating secondary fault probability of multiple power grids based on a Bayesian model. Background technique [0002] With the continuous development of the country's economy, the demand for electricity is getting stronger and stronger, and the emergence of various new energy sources has provided a supplement to the shortage of electricity resources to a large extent. However, the grid connection of multiple power sources has a great impact on the multiple grids, resulting in an increase in the probability of failure. [0003] During the operation of the whole multi-element grid, faults are inevitable, but many faults are caused by other faults. At present, the main research direction of most power grid research work is concentrated on power grid fault diagnosis, and many methods are used. The fault diagnosis of power grid is becomin...

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Problems solved by technology

At present, the main research direction of most grid research work is concentrated on grid fault diagnosis, and there are many methods used. Grid fault diagnosis is becoming more and more intelligent and efficient, but there are the following problems: Although the development of grid fault diagnosis technology is relatively fast fast, but there is no effective method for early warning of power grid faults; second, for the faults that occur, only the historical fault database is established, and the types of faults and the causes of the faults are simply counted, and no in-depth research has been carried out. Insufficient attention and research on secondary faults caused by faults

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