Probabilistic Forecasting Method of Severe Convective Weather in Ningbo in the Peripheral Circulation of Typhoon Landing in Fujian

Abstract

The invention discloses a probability forecasting method for strong convective weather in Ningbo in the peripheral circulation of typhoon landing in Fujian. Whether probabilistic prediction and calculation of the probability of strong convective weather are carried out for each grid point within the In the range of ~125°E, the mean wind speed of the meridian changes from low latitude to high latitude from negative value to positive value, and when the vertical shear factor of the middle and low layer wind direction of the grid point is greater than or equal to 0.5, the grid is calculated. The mid- and low-level wind vector vertical shear, high-level westerly jet, high-level divergence, low-level typhoon trough, and low-level convergence factor at the point, and the average of the six predictors is used as the probability of occurrence of severe convective weather; the advantage is that the forecast criteria are clear , which can objectiveize the subjective forecasting factors and improve the forecasting accuracy.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a weather forecast technology, in particular to a probabilistic forecast method for strong convective weather in Ningbo in the peripheral circulation of a typhoon landing in Fujian. Background technique [0002] Generally speaking, the formation of strong convective weather is closely related to the three basic conditions of thermal instability, dynamic uplift and water vapor, and vertical wind shear is an important factor for the formation and maintenance of strong convective weather. Typhoons (here refers to tropical storms and above-level tropical cyclones) are deep tropical weather systems, which carry abundant water vapor and huge energy, and often bring regional heavy precipitation, and typhoons often have mesocyclones, Strong convective weather such as tornado. In addition to the combination of the typhoon's periphery and cold air, thermal instability in typhoon strong convective weather is not as obvious as in general ...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0003] At present, the research on severe convective weather of typhoon is mostly based on the analysis of individual weather cases from radar data. However, there are not many synoptic-scale background analyzes and summaries of the strong convection in the Ningbo area in the peripheral circulation of the typhoon that landed in Fujian, especially there is no effective forecast method for this type of typhoon strong convection weather

Images