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Demand prediction method and device

A demand forecasting and demand technology, applied in forecasting, complex mathematical operations, instruments, etc., can solve problems such as low accuracy of results and limited information, and achieve the effect of improving accuracy and applicability

Active Publication Date: 2020-04-14
BEIJING SHUNFENG TONGCHENG TECH CO LTD
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  • Summary
  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0003] Existing demand forecasting methods usually analyze the short-term deterministic trend of data in the sequence and random interference factors when performing sequence analysis. The information mined by this analysis method is limited, and the obtained demand forecast is The result accuracy is not high

Method used

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  • Demand prediction method and device
  • Demand prediction method and device

Examples

Experimental program
Comparison scheme
Effect test

Embodiment 1

[0066] figure 1 It shows a schematic flowchart of a demand forecasting method provided by an embodiment of the present invention, the method includes steps S101-S103; specifically:

[0067] S101. Acquire demand data corresponding to a forecast object.

[0068] After the demand data is acquired, the acquired data may also be preprocessed to realize screening of the acquired demand data. Specifically, the following steps may be used for data preprocessing: sorting the demand data of the forecast objects according to the data generation time to obtain the demand data sequence of the forecast objects.

[0069] judging whether the length of the demand data sequence is greater than or equal to a preset length threshold, and if so, for each data in the demand data sequence, judging whether the data is greater than a preset first threshold, and if so, using a preset The first threshold replaces the data. If not, it is judged whether the data is smaller than the preset second thresho...

Embodiment 2

[0084] figure 2 It shows a schematic flowchart of determining the data change trend characteristics corresponding to the demand data in another demand forecasting method provided by an embodiment of the present invention, which is specifically implemented through the following steps:

[0085] a). Obtain the demand data corresponding to the forecast object, sort the demand data of the forecast object according to the data generation time, and obtain the demand data sequence of the forecast object.

[0086]b). Judging whether the length of the demand data sequence is greater than or equal to a preset length threshold, and if so, proceed to step c).

[0087] c). For each data in the demand data sequence, judge whether the data is greater than the preset first threshold, if so, replace the data with the preset first threshold, if not, judge whether the data is less than a preset second threshold; if yes, replace the data with the preset second threshold.

[0088] d). For each d...

Embodiment 3

[0103] image 3 It shows a schematic flow chart of determining the data distribution characteristics corresponding to the demand data in another demand forecasting method provided by an embodiment of the present invention; specifically, it is implemented through the following steps:

[0104] Step a) and step b) are the same as step a) and step b) of Embodiment 2, and will not be repeated here.

[0105] c).

[0106] Obtain a preset discrete distribution parameter, and for each data in the demand data sequence, if the demand value corresponding to the data is less than or equal to the preset discrete distribution parameter, then the demand corresponding to the data is considered to be the preset discrete distribution parameter , counting the proportion of discrete distribution parameters in the demand data sequence, judging whether the proportion of discrete distribution parameters in the demand data sequence is greater than or equal to the preset discrete proportion threshold,...

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Abstract

The invention provides a demand prediction method and device. The method comprises the steps of obtaining demand data corresponding to a prediction object, and on the basis of the demand data corresponding to the prediction object, determining a data change trend feature, a data distribution feature and a feature influencing the demand of a prediction object corresponding to the demand data, basedon the data change trend feature,, the data distribution feature and / or the feature influencing the demand of the prediction object, predicting the demand information of the prediction object in thefuture preset time period. Demand prediction is carried out from different dimensions by using the data change trend features, the data distribution features and / or the features influencing the demandof the prediction object through the method, and the accuracy of the demand prediction result is improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of data analysis and application, in particular to a demand forecasting method and device. Background technique [0002] When forecasting the demand for a thing, the demand data of the forecast object can be specific demand data such as the actual sales volume of the product, or symbolic demand data such as the freight volume of logistics. Taking the actual sales data of a product as an example, the existing technology generally takes the actual sales volume of a product as a unified indicator when forecasting demand, arranges the actual sales data of a product in chronological order, and then obtains the time series of the actual sales volume of a product. A trend fitting method or an exponential smoothing method is used to perform sequence analysis on the time series, so as to predict the market demand of the product in a future time period. [0003] Existing demand forecasting methods usually ana...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q10/06G06F17/18
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q10/06315G06F17/18Y04S10/50
Inventor 牛世雄许平杨秋源周超徐明泉
Owner BEIJING SHUNFENG TONGCHENG TECH CO LTD
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